Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a wreath-laying ceremony marking the eighty fifth anniversary of the Nazi Germany invasion into the Soviet Union in World Conflict II on the Remembrance and Sorrow Day on the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier by the Kremlin wall in Moscow on June 22, 2026.
Pavel Bednyakov | Afp | Getty Pictures
A string of political victories and deep-strike successes by Ukraine has revived hopes that the battle may very well be shifting in Kyiv’s favor, although analysts warn that efforts to boost the battle’s price for Russia danger triggering additional escalation.
After greater than 4 years since Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine launched an unprecedented drone strike on Gazprom’s Moscow Refinery, triggering an enormous explosion and sending black plumes of smoke billowing into the sky over the Russian capital.
The assault, which blew the lid off a storage tank, showcased Kyiv’s enhanced mid- to long-range drone capabilities and prolonged a collection of strikes on Russia’s vitality infrastructure.
Ukraine has additionally stepped up its strikes on Crimea, which Russia seized by power in 2014, as a part of a technique to isolate the peninsula, and has benefitted from political tailwinds in current weeks.
U.S. President Donald Trump signaled the potential for renewed American assist of Kyiv, the election of Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar eliminated a significant impediment to Ukraine’s integration into the European Union and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy obtained reward for turning the diplomatic tables on Russian President Vladimir Putin with an open letter that proposed face-to-face talks.
An interim U.S.-Iran peace deal additionally seems to have pushed the Russia-Ukraine battle again up the geopolitical agenda, whereas tumbling oil costs are seen as more likely to lower into Moscow’s current windfall.
Analysts, nonetheless, informed CNBC that Ukraine’s depleted air protection constitutes a significant impediment to its battlefield success and the potential for Russia to escalate the state of affairs even additional stays a hazard.
Grégoire Roos, director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia applications at Chatham Home, described the Ukrainian drone assault on the Moscow oil refinery as “probably the most fascinating growth over the previous 12 months.”
The incident underscored Ukraine’s rising navy confidence, Roos mentioned, in addition to highlighting Kyiv’s understanding that it should proceed to hit Russia “the place it hurts probably the most,” by reducing Russia’s vitality revenues.
Black smoke rises from the world of the Russian oil producer Gazprom Neft’s Moscow oil refinery on the south-eastern outskirts of Moscow on June 18, 2026.
– | Afp | Getty Pictures
“It is a unhealthy time for Russia. The variety of bankruptcies of [small and medium-sized enterprises] has been on the rise,” Roos informed CNBC in a telephone interview.
Formally, Russia’s inflation fee got here in at 5.6% year-over-year as of mid-June, decrease than a month earlier, in response to the Financial institution of Russia. However Swedish intelligence just lately alleged the nation was manipulating financial information and that the true inflation fee may very well be a lot increased, maybe as excessive as 15%. Roos mentioned such a determine was “fairly one thing.”
“Even when oil costs skyrocketed and went to the roof on the peak of the battle within the Center East, Russia had not elevated its manufacturing. So, sure, it benefitted from a windfall, however manufacturing was not elevated — so the results had been reasonably restricted,” Roos mentioned.
The tip recreation is at hand and, subsequently, we now have the danger of escalation.
Christopher Granville
Managing director at TS Lombard
Roos mentioned it is tough to see how Putin can again out of the battle with out shedding face and, subsequently, probably shedding energy. “It is like mountain climbing at excessive altitude. Whenever you’ve taken the trail, there isn’t any means again. And that’s what makes it harmful for Europe as a result of the dangers of escalation are all the time there,” he added.
Russian Deputy Overseas Minister Sergei Ryabkov mentioned Tuesday that Moscow has noticed “indicators of a shift” within the Trump administration’s place on understandings reached at a summit in Alaska final August, in response to Russian state information company Tass.
The feedback appeared to replicate rising frustration in Moscow, though Ryabkov mentioned talks with the U.S. would proceed.
Why Crimea is below strain
Natia Seskuria, senior fellow in Russian and Eurasian safety at RUSI, a London-based protection suppose tank, mentioned Ukraine’s mid- to longer-range drone marketing campaign towards Russia was “actually vital.”
“Ukraine is mainly demonstrating to the Russians that the price of this battle is barely rising. Not only for Putin’s regime however for atypical Russians,” Seskuria informed CNBC by video name.
“For a really very long time, Putin has been signaling to his inhabitants that Crimea is protected, and the battle wouldn’t come nearer to their houses and now we see that they’re dealing with the worst gasoline disaster in a protracted, very long time.”
A line of autos wait to refuel at gasoline station in Moscow, Russia on June 21, 2026. Whereas strict gasoline and diesel gross sales limitations starting from 20 to 100 liters per automobile are being carried out at quite a few gasoline stations in St. Petersburg, a routine stream of visitors and regular exercise proceed to be noticed at stations throughout the capital metropolis of Moscow.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Pictures
Seskuria mentioned it’s too early to make conclusions on the extent to which Ukraine can lower Crimea off fully, however continued assaults on the peninsula had been more likely to make Russia’s summer time offensive “way more difficult.”
Russian authorities, which had already imposed gasoline restrictions in Crimea, just lately suspended gasoline provides to the general public within the occupied area as Ukrainian assaults persist.
Analysts warn of escalation
“The tip recreation is at hand and, subsequently, we now have the danger of escalation,” Christopher Granville, managing director at TS Lombard, informed CNBC by phone.
“Russia’s territorial agenda is now restricted to the remaining northwestern nook of the Donetsk oblast, which is the final a part of the Donbas,” Granville mentioned.
He added it might take Russia “six months to seize one or at most two such locations” and that two locations within the Donbas, the cities of Kostyantynivka and Lyman, had been “about to fall.”
Two main cities within the area, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, are nonetheless to fall to Russian forces, Granville mentioned.
Firefighters attempt to put out a fireplace in a residential constructing following an airstrike in Zaporizhzhia on June 16, 2026, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Darya Nazarova | Afp | Getty Pictures
“So, you are 12 months probably to get to that time, and so in different phrases, you’ll be able to see the top level.”
Granville made clear, nonetheless, that the identical 12-month timeline may very well be utilized to the choice prospect of continued Ukrainian strain on Russian logistics and society, “leading to Russia settling for an armistice on entrance traces that fall in need of its current territorial aim.”
