Quarterly and month-to-month GDP information from the UK confirmed that the financial system was rising at a good tempo of about 1.5% a 12 months across the time Andy Burnham took over as prime minister.
It will likely be fascinating to see if the momentum carries out to the third quarter of 2026, the place his premiership can begin both taking the credit score or the blame for the evolution of the financial system.
This week’s inflation and labour market numbers will probably be key for the Financial institution of England to resolve whether or not to lift charges in 2026.
We’re nonetheless anticipating them to warrant a cautious strategy to financial coverage tightening, and the market appears to be slowly converging to our view. We anticipate the core inflation subindex to proceed transferring in direction of the central financial institution goal and submit a small drop to 2.5% on an annual foundation.
