Societe Generale analysts observe USD/CNY buying and selling beneath 6.80, with the Chinese language Yuan at its strongest degree since February 2023 forward of the US/China summit. They attribute Yuan outperformance to safe-haven demand and strong commerce knowledge, whereas anticipating solely incremental outcomes from Trump’s go to, targeted on commerce self-discipline and restricted confidence-building steps.
Secure-haven flows and commerce surplus
“The Chinese language yuan trades on the strongest degree since February 2023, returning beneath 6.80/USD forward of this week’s US/China summit. The outperformance of the Yuan in EM Asia this 12 months has been extra about China’s rising standing as a safe-haven amid the geopolitical and power storm.”
“Overseas commerce knowledge additionally proceed to assist the foreign money. Exports climbed 14.1% yoy, lifting the excess to $84.82bn in April.”
“The go to of Trump is comparatively low on expectations, underscored by a scaled‑down CEO delegation in comparison with 2017 and late invitations that mirror inner coverage divisions. The agenda will prioritize commerce self-discipline and a attainable quick extension of the October commerce truce, moderately than headline‑grabbing deal bulletins.”
“China will doubtless press for reduction from US know-how export controls and higher coverage certainty, whereas Washington is about to carry the road, retaining outcomes incremental whereas Iran and uncommon earth exports from China may additionally be mentioned.”
“Commercially, discussions could centre on slim, symbolic deliverables, notably a potential Boeing plane order, pointing to modest confidence‑constructing steps moderately than a reset in bilateral ties.”
(This text was created with the assistance of an Synthetic Intelligence device and reviewed by an editor.)
