In our December replace, we mixed the Elliott Wave (EW) Precept with common midterm election-year seasonality and the Armstrong Pi-cycle flip dates and concluded for the S&P 500 (SPX) that
“… Supplied the index holds above the November 21, 6720 low, the index can set itself up for a subdividing ultimate fifth wave (grey waves W-i, ii, iii, iv, and v), ideally as excessive as 7490 by roughly April 18-28, 2026.”
Quick ahead to as we speak, and the SPX is up virtually 2% since then, and seems to be subdividing as anticipated. To this point, so good. With extra value knowledge now obtainable, we have now up to date our short- to intermediate-term EW depend whereas sustaining the identical final upside goal zone of round 7345-7490. See Determine 1 beneath.
Determine 1. Intermediate-term Elliott Wave depend for the SPX
Contingent on value remaining above the warning ranges*, with every successive break beneath growing the chances by 20% that the uptrend has ended, we count on the index to ideally attain ~7100 for the blue W-iii, then drop to ~7015 for the blue W-iv, and rally to roughly 7160+/-40 for the orange W-3, and many others. Right here, the usual impulse sample is proven; nonetheless, the inexperienced W-5 may turn into an overlapping ending diagonal, leading to an overlapping rally to the decrease finish of the goal zone (~7345). For now, we have now no indication that this may happen. However make no mistake: as soon as this inexperienced W-5 is full, ideally round April 18-28, we nonetheless count on a 2022-like bear market earlier than the following bigger multi-year rally to new ATHs can start.
*Warning ranges for the Bulls: 6917, 6878, 6844, 6824, and 6720. These shall be adjusted upwards when the index continues to rise.
