OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong describe a technical rebound in USD/TWD pushed by broader US Greenback (USD) power and threat aversion linked to the US‑Iran ceasefire stalemate. Whereas near-term upside dangers persist, they nonetheless choose fading rallies, citing robust international inflows into Taiwanese equities, excessive correlation with the tech cycle, and sturdy AI-led export momentum as supportive for the Taiwan Greenback (TWD).
Brief-term squeeze versus tech assist
“Technical rebound fade. USDTWD rebounded, monitoring the broad uptick in USD as threat sentiment was restraint.”
“The squeeze greater in USDTWD was in line with our technical warning for falling wedge – sometimes related to a close to time period bullish reversal. Pair was final at 31.57 ranges.”
“Close to time period rebound dangers stay. Resistance at 31.60 (100 DMA), 31.75 ranges (21, 50 DMAs). Help at 31.40/45, 31.20 (2026 low) earlier than 30.90 (200 DMA).”
“We nonetheless favour fading rallies. Earlier we had indicated that there are indicators that TWD is recoupling with tech cycle once more (TWD-TWSE 30-day rolling correlation >0.90).”
“So, when geopolitical de-escalation will get underway once more and USD softness returns, then there’s a good likelihood TWD can see positive factors catch up, driving on international inflows and robust AI-led export momentum.”
(This text was created with the assistance of an Synthetic Intelligence device and reviewed by an editor.)
