Thursday, March fifth, 2026
As we speak’s pre-market is stuffed with loads of financial information. Being a traditional Thursday morning, we see new Weekly Jobless Claims, but in addition Productiveness and Labor Prices in addition to Imports and Exports. Market futures are on the wane after pushing towards breakeven prior to those studies. At present, the Dow is -0.6%, the S&P 500 -0.3%, the Nasdaq -0.35% and the small-cap Russell 2000 -0.85%.
As we mentioned yesterday afternoon on this area, “Iran fever” seems to be to have damaged — not less than for now. Market contributors are looking forward to a fast and tidy decision to our newest navy endeavor in Iran; college students of recent historical past are doubtless a bit extra uncertain one thing like this may be achieved. With pre-markets down at this hour, it seems a few of this fear is being priced again in.
Jobless Claims Among the many Sturdiest of Econ Prints
New Preliminary Jobless Claims for final week got here in at a still-low 213K, 2000 claims decrease than estimated and precisely in-line with the revised tally from the earlier week. Thus far in 2026, we’ve solely had a pair weeks pop up above 225K, and even that might be thought-about in keeping with a good labor market.
Persevering with Jobless Claims, reported per week in arrears from new claims, jumped to 1.87 million on this newest report — up from a downwardly revised 1.82 million the prior week. That is the very best degree we’ve seen for the reason that first week of the 12 months, however once more, after spending most of 2025 above 1.9 million longer-term jobless claims (which actually doesn’t draw issues till it tops 2 million, which by no means occurred final 12 months), we’re nonetheless formally in fine condition on Persevering with Claims.
Morning of Financial Prints: This autumn Productiveness, Imports/Exports
The primary print on This autumn Productiveness is out this morning, and stronger than anticipated by 100 foundation factors (bps): +2.8%. This follows an upwardly revised Q3 to +5.2% — the very best degree we’ve seen in 5 years, when the economic system was bouncing again from the Covid pandemic. Output expanded whereas hours labored declined. Is that this an early thumbprint of AI within the home economic system?
Unit Labor Prices, nevertheless, had been additionally greater than anticipated: +2.8% versus +2.0%. That is the very best we’ve seen since Q2 of final 12 months, and rolls again a little bit of that inclination that the AI economic system is upon us. So long as we’re paying labor extra to supply, typically talking it’s a sigh of reduction for home employment.
Import Costs for January — not delayed because of the authorities shutdown, simply backward-looking — had been decrease than anticipated: one other piece of excellent information for the economic system. Headline +0.2% was 10 bps beneath expectations, ands subtracting gasoline this bumps as much as +0.4%. Nevertheless, that’s nonetheless decrease than the consensus estimate. Yr over 12 months, we’re -0.1% on Imports, the bottom print since November of final 12 months.
Exports, which we wish to see hotter than Imports, obliged: +0.6%, the strongest degree since January of final 12 months, though decrease than anticipated 12 months over 12 months: +2.6%. This could be the best learn on Export costs since July of final 12 months, and 80 bps beneath the prior print.
Oil Worth Watch: +2% Once more As we speak
Lastly, oil costs are up once more this morning — trying to price-in potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz managed, not less than as of very not too long ago, by Iran. We’ve seen by how Iran is retaliating from the preliminary onslaught of bombs from the U.S. and Israel that it’s focusing on American stations all through the Center East. Closing off the Strait — which President Trump guarantees won’t be an issue — whereas damaging to Iran’s economic system, would doubtless trigger oil costs to soar.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is presently buying and selling at $78 per barrel (bbl), up from the low $60s only a couple weeks in the past, whereas Brent crude is available in at $83/bbl at this hour. This shall be a key metric to observe so long as this conflict continues, and will provide some insights into whether or not the U.S. is prepared to have interaction in a long-term battle, as we did 20 years in the past in Iraq and Afghanistan.
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