In our December replace, we mixed the Elliott Wave (EW) Precept with the Armstrong Pi-cycle flip dates and concluded for the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) that
“…if the November 21 low at 23854 holds, primarily based on present information, the Bull market will doubtless proceed, ideally nicely into April subsequent yr, earlier than a 2022-like Bear market begins. Under that stage, it’ll strongly counsel that the bear market is already underway.”
Nearer to dwelling, we
“… adjusted our perspective to view the [December 10] 25835 excessive as solely the grey Wave-i of a bigger (inexperienced) fifth wave, with W-ii to ideally ~24600 now underway.”
Quick ahead to at the moment. The index bottomed at 24647 (grey W-ii), rallied to 25716 on December 26 (orange W-1), bottomed out on January 2nd at 25086 (orange W-2), and is now buying and selling within the 25700s. Thus, the Bulls held the November lows elegantly, and the index is most probably advancing within the third of a third wave (orange W-3 of grey W-iii) for the ultimate fifth wave (inexperienced W-5). See Determine 1 beneath.
Determine 1. Brief-term Elliott Wave depend for the NDX
Contingent on value remaining above the warning ranges*, with every successive break beneath rising the chances by 20% that the uptrend has ended, we count on the index to ideally attain ~26825 for the orange W-3, then drop to ~26155 for the orange W-4, and rally to roughly 27225 for W-5, and many others. Right here, the usual impulse sample is proven; nonetheless, the inexperienced W-5 may also turn into an overlapping ending diagonal, leading to an overlapping rally to the decrease finish of the goal zone (~27860). For now, we have now no indication that this may happen. However make no mistake, as soon as this inexperienced W-5 completes, we nonetheless count on a 2022-like bear market earlier than the following bigger multi-year rally to new ATHs can begin.
*Warning ranges for the Bulls: 25639, 25428,25086, 24647, and 23854. These will likely be adjusted upwards when the index continues to rise.
