MUFG’s Michael Wan views the detailed US–India interim commerce deal, together with tariff cuts and exemptions, as constructive for India’s exterior place. He sees scope for USD/INR to briefly break beneath 90 in coming months, however expects solely a shallow INR restoration. MUFG forecasts USD/INR at 89.50 in Q1 2026 earlier than rising again to 93.00 by year-end on FDI repatriation and wider deficits.
Tariff cuts assist however upside later
“USD/INR: US and India supplied extra particulars across the interim commerce deal. General we expect it’s a constructive, and we forecast USD/INR at 89.50 by March 2026 and 93.00 by Dec 2026”
“General, we proceed to assume there’s a good likelihood for USD/INR to interrupt beneath the 90 stage over the subsequent few months however this can probably be a shallow restoration to achieve”
“89.50 in 1Q2026.”
“Over time, we proceed to see USD/INR rising to 93.00 by 4Q2026, pushed by continued FDI repatriation and import wants with a wider present account deficit.”
“General we view the small print as constructive, however some doable political pushback in India on among the agricultural associated concessions.”
(This text was created with the assistance of an Synthetic Intelligence software and reviewed by an editor.)
