ING economists Deepali Bhargava and Lynn Tune warn that upside inflation dangers are re-emerging for the Philippine Peso (PHP), pushed by recovering Oil costs and expectations of a robust El Niño that might spark a food-price shock. Rising world rice and fertiliser costs add to pressures. They anticipate one other 50bp of tightening in 2026, however spotlight political uncertainty as a key draw back danger that might delay reforms and dampen development.
El Niño and coverage dangers stress PHP
“Upside inflation dangers are rising once more, pushed by the restoration in oil costs and expectations of a robust El Niño later this yr which may set off a meals inflation shock throughout import-dependent economies just like the Philippines.”
“World rice costs are rising as nations transfer to safe provides, whereas fertiliser costs are prone to rebound from current lows amid renewed US-Iran tensions and provide disruption.”
“Persistent inflation pressures are prone to reinforce a hawkish coverage stance, supporting our forecast for an extra 50bp of tightening in 2026.”
“Political uncertainty stays a key draw back danger, probably delaying reforms, dampening development, and sustaining downward stress on the peso.”
(This text was created with the assistance of an Synthetic Intelligence instrument and reviewed by an editor. Know extra.)
