I’ve been monitoring SanDisk’s numbers. It is one in every of my favourites. Why? Its efficiency, and the rationale behind the large numbers. And the numbers hold doing one thing uncommon for positive. They hold getting greater than the already-big numbers that preceded them.
In the event you did not know, SanDisk (SNDK) is the top-performing S&P 500 inventory in 2026, up 707.11% year-to-date, in accordance with SlickCharts. It has lapped Micron nearly 3 times. It has lapped Dell, which sits in second place. It has lapped every part. It has truthfully been unbelievable.
And on July 5, Goldman Sachs did one thing that made even veteran semiconductor watchers cease and look twice. Goldman practically doubled its SanDisk worth goal, sustaining its Purchase score in a notice shared with me at TheStreet.
The 38-year-old SNDK closed July 9 at $1,858.27, up 7.59% on the session, in accordance with Yahoo Finance. The brand new goal, round $2,200, implies roughly 18% additional upside from that shut.
However the quantity itself is sort of secondary to what Goldman is definitely saying. The agency’s non-GAAP earnings per share estimate for calendar 12 months 2026 is greater than 30% above the Road consensus, as famous. That hole between Goldman’s view and the market’s is the true story right here. Let’s take a look at it.
What Goldman is seeing that the majority analysts should not
On July 9, I coated Goldman’s AMD earnings preview from the identical supply, noting that the server CPU story wins the earnings. My colleague broke down AMAT, citing anticipated DRAM power to drive best-in-class development in 2026. At this time, it’s SanDisk’s flip, and the setup Goldman describes is much more bullish.
The agency raised its 12-month goal to $2,200 from $1,200, based mostly on a 20 instances price-to-earnings a number of utilized to a normalized EPS estimate of $110, considerably increased than the prior estimate of $55, Goldman wrote within the notice shared with me.
We anticipate a really robust quarter pushed by continued NAND provide tightness.
Extra SanDisk:
The goal methodology is price studying rigorously. Goldman lowered its a number of from 22 instances to twenty instances on the next earnings base, and the EPS estimate doubled.
That isn’t a valuation inflation story. It’s a basic earnings energy revision pushed by NAND pricing knowledge that Goldman believes the Road has not but absolutely included.
The agency expects SanDisk to ship important upside to fourth quarter outcomes and steerage when it studies on August 5, with further investor consideration on long-term agreements and NAND pricing commentary following Micron’s robust outcomes.
Goldman particularly famous that positioning heading into the print seems bullish given “extraordinarily robust Q2 steerage” and optimistic administration commentary in current weeks.
My learn of that setup is that Goldman is basically saying the quarter shall be robust, the steerage shall be robust, and the LTA disclosures might be the catalyst that forces a broader re-rating.
Here is the NAND provide story Goldman is betting on
Goldman sees tight supply-and-demand situations in NAND persisting longer than in DRAM, pushed by restricted provide additions throughout the trade, in accordance with the notice.
SanDisk is concurrently bettering its product combine via ramping eSSD design wins at key hyperscaler clients. A couple of-third of fiscal 12 months 2027 bit output is already dedicated beneath New Enterprise Mannequin agreements.
Associated: Financial institution of America revamps Sandisk inventory worth goal
The LTA disclosure story is the merchandise Goldman flagged most particularly as a possible inventory mover on the August 5 name. Following the variety of new agreements just lately introduced by Micron, Goldman stated the scope and variety of new LTA disclosures from SanDisk shall be a key point of interest for buyers.
Every new hyperscaler dedication locks in pricing and quantity, eradicating the cyclical pricing threat that has traditionally capped reminiscence inventory multiples.
Goldman additionally acknowledged just a few draw back hazards. A structural change in NAND pricing failing to materialize, Chinese language competitor YMTC iterating on its roadmap, and SanDisk failing to realize eSSD traction.
However the agency’s conviction is that none of these dangers are imminent, and that offer stays structurally constrained nicely into 2027.
SanDisk (SNDK) is the top-performing S&P 500 inventory in 2026, up 707.11% year-to-date, as of this reporting.Jin Lee/Bloomberg through Getty Photographs
SanDisk’s Q3 outcomes and This autumn steerage body what August 5 must ship
The Q3 fiscal 2026 outcomes, reported on April 30, set the monetary basis that Goldman is constructing on.
Income of $5.95 billion, up 97% above Q2 sequentially and 251% above the year-ago quarter
Datacenter income grew 645% 12 months over 12 months, and 233% quarter over quarter
GAAP internet revenue was $3.615 billion, up 287% 12 months over 12 months, with a non-GAAP EPS of $23.41.
5 New Enterprise Mannequin agreements had been signed throughout and instantly after the quarter.
For This autumn fiscal 2026, SanDisk anticipated income of $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $30.00 to $33.00. That steerage vary, on the midpoint, would symbolize one other huge sequential step from an already historic Q3.
This quarter marks a basic inflection level for SanDisk.
Continued CEO David Goeckeler within the Q3 earnings launch, “We’re advancing to a brand new enterprise mannequin constructed on multi-year buyer engagements backed by agency monetary commitments. This transformation is driving structurally increased and extra sturdy earnings energy.”
July 10, 2026, FactSet knowledge confirms that SanDisk is among the many largest contributors to Data Expertise (IT) sector earnings development since March 31, alongside Micron, Nvidia, and Apple.
Associated: Goldman Sachs doubles down on Utilized Supplies inventory goal
The semiconductor sector is predicted to report 131% year-over-year earnings development in Q2, and SanDisk is likely one of the main engines of that development. Excluding the trade, the estimated earnings development price for the IT sector would fall to 25.8% from 63.3%.
SanDisk’s investor day on August 13 follows simply eight days after earnings, offering one other near-term catalyst window for administration to quantify the multi-year LTA pipeline and long-term monetary targets.
Bear in mind, SNDK has already returned 707% year-to-date, a $2,200 Goldman goal, and an EPS estimate 30% above consensus. To me, which means the transfer isn’t over. August 5 will inform us whether or not all people else is able to agree.
