New information from the Port of Los Angeles exhibits that commitments made by China to purchase extra U.S. agricultural merchandise as a part of a commerce discount between Chinese language President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump have but to materialize, and that has contributed to a decline in cargo quantity to close a three-year low for the nation’s busiest port.
Complete processed cargo quantity on the Port of Los Angeles in January was down by roughly 12% yr over yr, with Gene Seroka, govt director for the Port of Los Angeles, citing a decline in agricultural exports as among the many main components. “Exports to China look dismal,” he stated.
Exports to China have dropped significantly throughout the nation’s main ports, with containerized exports down 26% final yr, based on information shared by the Port of Los Angeles. Los Angeles took a giant hit on the essential agricultural export of soybeans, based on Seroka.
In early 2026, President Trump introduced China was contemplating buying an extra eight million metric tons of U.S. soybeans (totaling 20 million) for the present season, following the October 2025 settlement to purchase 12 million tons.
Soybeans popping out of the Port of Los Angeles to China had been down 80% final yr, and no enchancment was seen in both November or December after the preliminary discussions between the U.S. and China.
“It is a actually essential a part of the general export technique right here,” Seroka stated. “Argentina and Brazil have picked up quite a lot of the contracts for China on soybeans,” he stated, and he added that any improve within the U.S. farm sector’s skill to export will take time. “These usually are not transactional-type purposes. These are agreements that the final three, six, and twelve months in period. So it will be one more cycle earlier than the U.S. soybean exporter has an opportunity to bid and get into the sport,” he added.
The Port of Los Angeles reported roughly 812,000 twenty-foot equal items (TEUs) for the month of January, together with imports, exports and empty containers. In January 2025, roughly 924,000 TEUs had been reported, fueled by front-loading of freight forward of not solely the most important vacation interval in Asia however the begin of President Trump’s second-term tariffs. Breaking out the container rely, January imports had been 421,000 container items, down 13% from final yr’s larger ranges. On the export aspect, 104,000 container items had been processed, an 8% drop yr over yr.
Empty containers that in instances of excessive demand are despatched again to Asia, a forwarding wanting indicator of Asia demand, got here in at 286,000 TEUs, a 12% drop from final yr, based on the Port of Los Angeles.
Seroka stated the elevated 2025 numbers from a interval when importers had been scrambling to get cargo in forward of tariffs will proceed to be a think about comparisons all through a lot of 2026. “U.S. commerce coverage stays largely unsure, and I count on that to proceed,” he stated.
The freight container import quantity drop on the nation’s largest port was notable throughout what’s normally a busy interval for import exercise from China, and Asian manufacturing hubs extra broadly, on account of Lunar New 12 months, as corporations herald spring and summer time objects earlier than manufacturing crops in China shut for a month to have a good time the vacation. Softer demand for items can be seen in February information thus far, with container counts from arrivals wanting “flat,” based on Seroka. “In comparison with final yr’s huge first quarter, I venture a decline of lower than 10% for Q1 and I do not see the economic system or cargo quantity dropping off a cliff after that,” he stated.
However he added that the January numbers are troubling. “That is our lowest month-to-month output in virtually three years,” Seroka stated. “This reinforces why commerce coverage is so essential. American farmers and producers want to stay aggressive in international markets. They merely cannot afford to lose extra floor,” he stated.
Ocean freight economics on U.S. routes close to ‘break-even level’
As U.S. port exercise has slumped, stress is being felt all through the ocean transport market, with charges trending down and an excessive amount of obtainable container capability on ships.
In keeping with Peter Sand, chief transport analyst at Xeneta, the lower in container volumes has led to a widespread drop in ocean freight charges. Within the “mid-low market phase” — usually occupied by the bigger quantity shippers — charges have fallen over 18% within the final month, whereas the market common has fallen 11.5%.
“With the market mid-low performing as a bellwether and seemingly impacted extra instantly by the growing capability on the transpacific, these shippers paying the market common ought to count on additional softening in charges within the coming weeks,” stated Sand.
Ocean carriers will reply with what Sand known as “aggressive capability administration,” which might imply extra clean (canceled) sailings to assist put a flooring below falling charges.
In a current observe to shoppers, Honour Lane Delivery stated present freight fee ranges have “fallen near and even under” service break-even factors on all lanes to the U.S. and Canada.
HLS famous the variety of canceled sailings beginning with the week of Feb. 9 mirrored vessel capability discount of 60%, 58%, and 50% on the Asia to Pacific South West, Asia to Pacific North West, and Asia to U.S. East Coast commerce lanes.
Because of the cancelled sailings, containers could also be “rolled” a few times whereas nonetheless in Asia — which means the containers sit idle throughout weeks on the commerce calendar till they are often positioned on a vessel with a vacation spot within the U.S. “This might trigger provide chain disruption and delays for shippers,” stated Sand.
China’s import combine in January remained closely concentrated in client items and industrial inputs, based on commerce information compiled by Descartes, with furnishings and bedding, at 126,149 TEUs, accounting for 16.4% of China-origin imports. Plastics represented 15.4%, whereas the mixed import classes of equipment and electrical equipment reached 18.3% of whole quantity. Attire, footwear and different textiles mixed made up 6.5% of whole quantity, whereas toys and sporting items accounted for five.8% of imports, based on Descartes information.
The decline in commerce quantity from China is being offset to a level by the enlargement of producing into Southeast Asian nations. In January, there was a 17.8% year-over-year improve in U.S. containerized imports from Vietnam, based on Descartes, whereas imports from Thailand and Indonesia elevated 36.5% and 18%, respectively.
“The increasing sourcing from Southeast Asia is continuous to offset a portion of the decline in China-origin imports,” Honour Lane wrote in its current observe to shoppers.
Seroka stated the Port of Los Angeles had round 60% of its import enterprise tied to China firstly of the primary commerce battle in 2018. “At this time, it is 40 p.c and dropping,” he stated. The port has been in a position to develop because of the mixture of Southeast Asia nations making beneficial properties, together with Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia, Indonesia and the Philippines. “However once more, you are not going to switch China and even one province in China with one other origin,” Seroka stated.
The Port of Lengthy Seashore, the sister port to Los Angeles, reported report container volumes on account of the front-loading in 2025, with quantity development helped by commerce out of Southeast Asia.
