Cuba’s President Miguel Diaz-Canel (C) takes half within the “Anti-Imperialist” protest in entrance of the US Embassy in opposition to the US incursion in Venezuela, the place 32 Cuban troopers misplaced their lives, in Havana on January 16, 2026.
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Cuba’s communist-run authorities is going through its largest take a look at for the reason that collapse of the Soviet Union.
U.S. President Donald Trump has ratcheted up the strain on the Caribbean island for the reason that Jan. 3, navy operation to grab Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, a long-time ally of Cuba’s authorities. Cuba stated 32 of its residents had been killed within the assault.
Trump has since successfully lower Cuba off from Venezuelan oil, known as its authorities “an uncommon and extraordinary risk” and pledged to impose tariffs on any nation that provides it with oil.
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel condemned the transfer and stated: “Give up isn’t an possibility.” He is since stated the federal government is ready to carry talks with Washington, albeit “with out strain or preconditions.”
The nation has warned that worldwide airways would now not have the ability refuel within the nation resulting from gas shortages. Gripped by a worsening financial disaster, Cuba’s authorities just lately adopted rationing measures to guard important providers and ration gas provides for key sectors.
The plan reportedly contains restrictions on gas gross sales, the closure of some vacationer institutions, shortening college days and a shorter working week at state-owned corporations to 4 days, from Monday to Thursday.
“The present state of affairs in Cuba is as severe because it has been for the reason that Nineties, when Cuba abruptly needed to survive with out the help of the Jap Bloc,” Par Kumaraswami, professor of Latin American Research on the U.Ok.’s College of Nottingham, instructed CNBC by electronic mail.
The percentages are shortening that President Miguel Díaz-Canel will probably be compelled from energy within the weeks or months forward in a Maduro-style managed transition.
Robert Munks
Head of Americas analysis at Verisk Maplecroft
Trump’s tariff threats have created a deterrent for a lot of nations, Kumaraswami stated.
Mexico has despatched humanitarian assist however suspended oil shipments, because it sought to protect its relationship with Havana whereas avoiding Trump’s tariffs.
Kumaraswami stated there was “after all frustration with the difficulties of each day life,” however that “many Cubans are resolved to withstand threats to their nationwide sovereignty and a brand new wave of patriotism has emerged.”
‘An accelerating collapse’
Air Canada subsequently has canceled all flights to Cuba amid the gas scarcity, although the airline stated Monday that it might deliver some 3,000 prospects already within the nation residence over the approaching days.
Tourism is a big income for Cuba’s cash-strapped authorities and the nation is a well-liked winter trip vacation spot for Canadian vacationers.
A Turkish Airways airplane takes off at Jose Marti Worldwide Airport in Havana on February 9, 2026.
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Not like in earlier crises, Cuba’s regime lacks international companions that may step in to assist, in line with Robert Munks, head of Americas analysis in danger intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft.
“Elevating the stakes, the US has additionally restricted Cuba’s entry to laborious forex and pressured Nicaragua to finish visa-free journey for Cubans,” Munks instructed CNBC by electronic mail.
The federal government’s pledge to extend using restricted renewable power sources is probably going “too little, too late,” Munks stated. He added that outbreaks of civil unrest had been doable, on condition that the island’s home power manufacturing is much in need of what it must hold the lights on.
“An accelerating collapse of fundamental providers will put the regime underneath excessive strain to discover a negotiated resolution,” Munks stated.
He added that “the percentages are shortening” on Díaz-Canel being compelled from energy within the months forward in a Maduro-style managed transition, however Munks stated it was extra possible that “the regime will attempt to muddle via” till the U.S. midterm elections in November.
Cuba’s dwindling oil provides prompted the United Nations to warn of a doable humanitarian “collapse” final week.
“The Secretary-Normal is extraordinarily involved in regards to the humanitarian state of affairs in Cuba, which is able to worsen, and if not collapse, if its oil wants go unmet,” stated UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric.
An enormous take a look at for BRICS
Cuba’s emergency measures needs to be seen as essential take a look at for the BRICS bloc of creating nations, in line with Helen Yaffe, a Cuba skilled and professor of Latin American political economic system on the College of Glasgow, Scotland.
“That is in all probability an important take a look at now for BRICS … If BRICS can not shield, defend and rally round a member, then what’s it value?” Yaffe instructed CNBC by phone.
Cuba acquired “accomplice nation” standing of the BRICS group in January final 12 months, bolstering its ties with the likes of Brazil, Russia and China. Certainly, every of those three nations have sought to supply help to Cuba in current days.
The Mexican authorities has dispatched humanitarian assist to the folks of Cuba aboard two ships of the Mexican Navy. Greater than 800 tons of provides had been transported by sea from Asipona, in Veracruz, Mexico, on February 9, 2026.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Pictures
A spokesperson for China’s international ministry stated Tuesday that Beijing “stands firmly in opposition to the inhumane actions that deprive the Cuban folks of their proper to subsistence and improvement.” They added that China would, “as at all times,” search to supply help to Cuba.
Russia, in the meantime, has described Havana’s gas state of affairs as “really vital” and stated U.S. makes an attempt to additional strain the nation had been inflicting quite a few issues.
“The Cuban authorities isn’t going to submit,” Yaffe stated. “The very fact is, [the U.S. is] going to maintain squeezing and the Cubans are going to maintain resisting and there is going to be a variety of pointless struggling.”
She added: “I am a historian and it’s extremely vainglorious for historians to attempt to predict the longer term however we are able to have a look at traits — and I can assure you that we had been right here earlier than within the early Nineties the place no person thought Cuba would pull collectively and pull via — and so they did.”
