Eliquis (apixaban) is without doubt one of the most commercially consequential loss-of-exclusivity (LOE) occasions in current pharmaceutical historical past, with patent expiries anticipated this yr for Europe and in 2027 for the US and Japan. With international gross sales of $14.4bn in 2025, the Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS) and Pfizer-partnered anticoagulant ranks among the many trade’s highest-grossing small molecules. Its long-standing scientific adoption and expansive prescriber base have made it the dominant oral anticoagulant globally, but in addition a model whose exclusivity loss carries outsized income implications for BMS.
First accepted within the EU in Might 2011 and by the FDA in December 2012, Eliquis is a small molecule direct issue Xa inhibitor indicated throughout stroke prevention, atrial fibrillation, and venous thromboembolic situations, together with deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism. As illustrated in Determine 1, international Eliquis gross sales are forecast to fall from $14.4bn in 2025 to $205m in 2031, a near-total erosion of 98.6% and one of many largest single-asset LOE occasions within the trade. The decline will not be gradual however geographically sequenced: European exclusivity loss in Might 2026 triggers the primary wave of compression, adopted by the far bigger US cliff in 2028, which drives the steepest absolute income destruction. In whole, the model is projected to shed $14.2bn over six years.
Eliquis international gross sales forecast by geography, 2025-2031
The primary section of abrasion is concentrated in ex-US markets. Remainder of World revenues are forecast to fall by practically 75% between 2025 and 2027 as European generic entry takes maintain, pushed by tendering programs and formulary-level switching that may displace branded quantity quickly as soon as exclusivity lapses. The US, in contrast, is predicted to stay largely insulated by means of this era, its share of whole portfolio revenues rising to almost 90% by 2027 because the model turns into more and more concentrated in its final high-value geography.
US income erosion is predicted to start earlier than generic entry. Beneath the Inflation Discount Act, a Medicare most honest worth of $231 per 30-day provide took impact in January 2026, decreasing internet revenues two years forward of the patent cliff. When US exclusivity falls in 2028, the affect is projected to be instant and extreme—a near-50% single-year decline pushed by the fast generic substitution dynamics of the US market, the place formulary switches and substitution-at-dispensing can shift quantity inside quarters of launch. By 2031, US revenues are forecast to have fallen 99% from their peak in 2025, accounting for over $10bn of whole losses throughout the forecast interval.
