DBS Group Analysis Chief Economist Taimur Baig, highlights indicators of slowing US consumption after sturdy 2025 progress. He notes softer retail gross sales momentum in 4Q25 and a downgrade in real-time GDP estimates. Baig argues US family fundamentals stay stable and expects the Federal Reserve to ship two 25bp charge cuts in 2H26 regardless of inflation staying above goal.
US demand, GDP nowcast and Fed cuts
“The US is a consumption powerhouse, making up practically 30% of world consumption regardless of comprising of solely 4.2% of the world’s inhabitants.”
“Consumption progress for 2025 was spectacular, however there are early indicators of some slowdown, particularly when wanting on the information from 4Q 2025.”
“The implication of this growth is seen in actual time GDP estimates.”
“Consumption development, positioned in context, doesn’t seem worrisome.”
“We now have penciled in two Fed charge cuts this yr, one in 3Q and one in 4Q.”
(This text was created with the assistance of an Synthetic Intelligence instrument and reviewed by an editor.)
