Final week’s US greenback rally created a number of engaging setups within the foreign exchange market.
Watch at this time’s video to see precisely how I’m buying and selling the DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, and XAUUSD subsequent week.
US Greenback Index (DXY) Forecast
The DXY performed out in response to plan final week, breaking above 99.40 on Monday and respecting the extent as new assist on Tuesday.
That was my base case for the push again into the 100.25 resistance space.
For now, greenback bulls are nonetheless coping with that space as of Friday’s session. As such, a pullback early subsequent week might be within the playing cards.
Nevertheless, whereas I wish to see a retest of the 99.70 area, I’m not assured we’ll get the DXY that low. That’s very true when analyzing charts like EURUSD and GBPUSD.
Any pullback into the 99.90 area, and I’ll look ahead to a decrease time-frame Change of Character (CHoCH) to substantiate a bullish development continuation.
Alternatively, I’ll be eyeing the 99.70 area for a bounce from the DXY.
EURUSD Forecast
EURUSD trended decrease final week, beginning with Monday’s bearish CHoCH close to 1.1600. That put sellers in management and steered that shorting energy was most well-liked.
Though EURUSD ended final week in sideways consolidation, the market construction stays favoring sellers.
The pair closed under its November open, and faces promoting strain within the 1.1530/40 area early subsequent week.
If EURUSD checks that space, a low-time-frame shift from bullish to bearish might be interesting for a brief. Key assist is the every day Truthful Worth Hole (FVG) from August at 1.1460.
Nevertheless, Wednesday’s aggressive selloff left a buy-side imbalance at 1.1560/70. Markets are inclined to revisit thinly traded areas like this, however whether or not the euro targets it first depends upon the worth motion at 1.1540 resistance.
So long as EURUSD trades under 1.1522, I’m solely excited about shorting pullbacks into premium.
GBPUSD Forecast
GBPUSD has been extremely uneven in November. Nevertheless, like EURUSD, the pair stays bearish on the 4-hour time-frame.
The pound closed final week under 1.3140, which implies patrons misplaced the battle on the earlier weekly vary lows.
Be aware how GBPUSD closed two earlier weeks above 1.3140, suggesting that bulls have been holding the road. Final week’s bearish shut modified that.
Mix the 1.3140 weekly resistance with a 1.3134 every day FVG, and sellers are more likely to defend this space if examined subsequent week.
That area additionally aligns with a 4-hour descending development line from the September excessive, making it a confluence of resistance.
A rejection from the 1.3130/40 space might goal latest lows close to 1.3020. Nevertheless, 1.2945 is a composite Level of Management (PoC) from the March consolidation, making it value watching.
So long as GBPUSD stays under 1.3156, I’ll stay bearish, which means I’m solely excited about shorts. A sustained break above that might flip the pair from bearish to bullish.
USDCAD Forecast
USDCAD has trended greater since June, so watching for getting alternatives into low cost home windows is good, for my part.
Up to now in November, we’ve seen USDCAD principally range-bound between 1.3970 and 1.4130. Nevertheless, the multi-month uptrend stays.
With that in thoughts, a USDCAD pullback into the 1.4060 area might be fascinating for an extended setup, however solely with the fitting low-time-frame bullish CHoCH.
If we get it, that might ship USDCAD again to its 1.4130 vary highs. There’s additionally a every day order block close to 1.4250 that may make for an fascinating goal within the coming weeks.
Alternatively, a sustained break under 1.4040 would flip the decrease time frames from bullish to bearish within the close to time period.
Gold (XAUUSD) Forecast
We caught a pleasant XAUUSD lengthy setup within the VIP group final week based mostly on a 15-minute bullish CHoCH on Tuesday. The goal was $4,120/30 based mostly on the resting buy-side liquidity within the space.
That commerce performed out properly, and a few VIP members even bought quick gold from that $4,127 retest.
For now, XAUUSD stays principally range-bound. Nevertheless, Friday’s failure to carry above a key development line close to $4,072 might be problematic for gold bulls early subsequent week.
That mentioned, Friday value motion needs to be taken with a grain of salt, given the decrease quantity earlier than the weekend.
The 4-hour time-frame is bearish following the break under $3,950 in late October. So, though the every day and weekly charts stay bullish, the intraday charts proceed to recommend decrease costs forward.
I’ll be watching how gold trades close to $4,070/80 early subsequent week. A rejection between the 1-hour inversion FVG (iFVG) at $4,078 and the hourly FVG at $4,082 might current a brief alternative.
Alternatively, I’ll be watching the development line assist close to $4,030.
