The U.S. confirmed a rescue operation after Iran claimed to have downed a U.S. fighter jet. Odds for U.S. forces getting into Iran by April 30 jumped to 85.5% YES, up from 60% the day before today.
Merchants reacted rapidly. The April 30 market surged 25.5 factors, reflecting elevated expectations of U.S. floor involvement. The December 31 market additionally rose, now at 87.5% YES, up from 70%.
Day by day buying and selling quantity for these markets hit $4.26M in USDC. The order e-book depth is important, with $998K wanted to maneuver the April 30 worth by 5 factors, indicating sturdy institutional curiosity. The most important transfer within the final 24 hours was a 4-point spike at 2:14 PM, doubtless from a big order.
A confirmed fight loss suggests vulnerability and will increase the chance of floor drive deployment. With April 30 odds at 86% YES, a share pays $1 if U.S. troops enter Iran by then—a 1.16x return. This wager depends upon additional escalation or affirmation of floor operations.
Look ahead to statements from Trump, Hegseth, or CENTCOM, and any Congressional Struggle Powers actions, as these might affect market sentiment.
Markets Impacted
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