A U.S.-Israeli airstrike hit an IRGC missile website close to Isfahan, Iran, rising tensions. The chances for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 7.5% YES, down from 8% yesterday and 26% every week in the past.
Merchants view the strike as a bearish sign for a fast diplomatic decision. The April 7 market now sits at 7.5% YES, displaying a pointy decline in ceasefire hopes. April 15 is at 18.5% YES, indicating the same outlook. The April 30 market at 36.5% YES displays much less pessimism however is down from 49% every week in the past.
The market construction suggests skepticism a couple of near-term ceasefire, with odds enhancing in Could. A 19-point leap between April 30 and Could 31 suggests merchants count on a possible decision catalyst in late spring.
Buying and selling quantity is at $1,393,190 in USDC over the past 24 hours, with $31,494 wanted to maneuver the April 7 market by 5 proportion factors. The biggest single transfer was a 2-point drop at 8:13 AM, probably because of the strike information.
The strike helps a bearish outlook for a fast decision. Focusing on strategic missile websites suggests extended battle. Merchants may take into account the low-cost potential of a YES share for April 7 at 7.5¢, which might pay $1 if a ceasefire happens — a dangerous 13.3x return.
Look ahead to statements from CENTCOM, potential talks by way of Oman or Qatar, and rhetoric modifications from key figures like Trump or Rubio. These may shift market sentiment sharply.
Markets Impacted
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