The U.S. Shopper Value Index rose 0.3% month-over-month in February 2026, assembly consensus expectations and holding the annual inflation fee regular at 2.4%, in accordance with knowledge launched Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Nonetheless, the broadly in-line report was instantly overshadowed by the continuing U.S.-Israel warfare on Iran, which has despatched oil costs surging and raised fears that inflation may transfer sharply increased within the months forward.
Key Takeaways
- Headline CPI held regular at 2.4% year-over-year, matching forecasts and unchanged from January
- Core CPI (ex-food & power) rose 0.2% month-to-month — a deceleration from January’s 0.3% — and a pair of.5% yearly, additionally matching expectations
- The information predates the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran on February 28, which means the power shock that has since pushed gasoline costs up ~20% won’t present up till the March report
February’s inflation report got here in largely as anticipated, providing a relaxed snapshot of value pressures. Nonetheless, merchants rapidly brushed it off as outdated information.
The information displays costs collected earlier than the U.S. and Israel struck Iran on February 28. Since then, crude oil has surged. Many analysts now anticipate headline inflation to maneuver again above 3% in Q2 as increased power prices work their approach by means of the financial system, with some projecting month-to-month CPI positive factors of 0.9 to 1.0% in March alone.
Hyperlink to official BLS U.S. CPI Report (February 2026)
Contained in the report, shelter disinflation continued its gradual grind, with lease posting its smallest month-to-month enhance in 5 years. Core items stayed contained, helped by the third straight drop in used car costs. However tariff pass-through is beginning to present up in attire and family furnishings.
- Shelter: Rose 0.2% for the month, the biggest single contributor to headline inflation; annual shelter inflation slowed to three.0%
- Hire: Climbed solely 0.1% — the smallest month-to-month achieve since January 2021
- Meals: Up 0.4% for the month and three.1% year-over-year
- Vitality: Gained 0.6%, pushed by a 0.8% rise in gasoline and an 11.1% surge in gas oil; electrical energy fell 0.7%
- Attire: Jumped 1.3% — the most important month-to-month achieve since September 2018 — reflecting continued tariff pass-through
- Used autos: Fell 0.4% for the third straight month-to-month decline; new car costs have been flat
- Medical care: Rose 0.5% on the month, up 3.4% year-over-year
- Airline fares: Elevated 1.4%, with steeper rises anticipated forward as jet gas prices climb
There may be additionally a lingering knowledge high quality challenge. The 43-day authorities shutdown final fall compelled the BLS to estimate lacking October knowledge, and a few economists imagine that will have understated CPI by roughly 0.3 to 0.4 share factors.
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Market Response
United States Greenback vs. Main Currencies: 5-min
Overlay of USD vs. Main Currencies Chart Sooner with TradingView
The U.S. greenback was already edging increased forward of the 8:30 AM ET launch as rising oil costs and geopolitical pressure saved threat sentiment cautious. The greenback briefly popped on the headline earlier than rapidly pulling again, for the reason that in-line knowledge provided no new catalyst.
From round 10:30 AM onward, the Dollar resumed its broader climb as Treasury yields pushed increased. By the U.S. shut, the greenback had prolonged positive factors towards most main currencies, with USD/JPY main the transfer whereas USD/CHF and USD/EUR additionally climbed greater than 0.20% on the day.
The muted response on the launch and the regular grind increased afterward mirrored the broader backdrop. With the Fed broadly anticipated to carry charges on the March 17 to 18 assembly, an in-line CPI report did little to shift coverage expectations.
As an alternative, rising Treasury yields and the geopolitical backdrop saved demand for the greenback agency as merchants seemed previous the February knowledge and towards what could come subsequent, an inflation rebound pushed by surging power costs.
