The USDCAD is pushing larger once more at the moment, extending the trend-like rally that started final Monday—and doing so with stable technical backing.
Final week’s turning level got here when the pair discovered assist close to the 100-bar shifting common on the 4-hour chart, bottoming at 1.3669 (simply above the MA at 1.3662). From there, the patrons took management. The following transfer larger broke via a key cluster of resistance, together with the 100-day MA (1.3790), the 200-day MA (1.3803), and the 50% retracement of the transfer down from the November 2025 excessive (1.3810). That confluence break was the inexperienced mild for patrons—they usually responded. The pair rallied 226 pips into the weekly shut at 1.3892.
Momentum has carried into at the moment’s session, with worth extending to a excessive of 1.3927. That transfer has now pushed the pair right into a well-defined swing space between 1.3924 and 1.3937—a zone that has acted as each resistance and assist going again to August, and one which capped the rally in January close to 1.3928.
That is the place issues get fascinating.
If patrons can push above 1.3937 and maintain, it opens the door for additional upside extension. The development stays intact, and as all the time, the bias stays with the route of momentum—the development is your pal.
Nonetheless, this space additionally presents a low-risk alternative for sellers. With worth urgent right into a well-established resistance zone, merchants in search of a corrective transfer could lean towards it.
On the draw back, a transfer again beneath the 61.8% retracement at 1.3888 would begin to give sellers a foothold. A break beneath 1.3860—and extra importantly 1.3843—would improve confidence {that a} near-term excessive is in place and shift the bias extra impartial to bearish.
Key ranges to look at:
- Resistance: 1.3924–1.3937 (swing space); break above retains the bullish development in play
- Help: 1.3888 (61.8% retracement), 1.3860, 1.3843
For now, the patrons stay in management—however they’re being examined at a key technical ceiling.
