Most altcoins are at present displaying bearish patterns that counsel “altcoin season” will not be coming, in response to quite a few analysts, as Bitcoin dominance begins to rise once more.
Key takeaways:
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The Supertrend indicator flashes “promote,” which beforehand led to a 66% drop within the altcoin complete market cap.
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Rising BTC dominance and a low altcoin season index present no indicators of reversal.
Altcoin complete market cap turns bearish
The continuing sell-off in altcoins is mirrored by the correction in TOTAL2 — the full market cap of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin (BTC) — that started on Oct. 10.
Information from TradingView reveals that TOTAL2 has decreased by 32% to $1.19 trillion in December from its all-time excessive of $1.77 trillion reached on Oct. 10.
This drop has seen TOTAL2 lose above key assist ranges, together with the 50-week exponential transferring common (EMA) at present at $1.3 trillion, as proven within the chart beneath.
Associated: Crypto altseason unlikely in 2026 as ‘blue-chip survivors’ to win out: Analyst
The SuperTrend indicator additionally flashed a bearish sign when it reversed from crimson to inexperienced and moved above the value in mid-November.
This indicator overlays the chart whereas monitoring TOTAL2’s pattern, just like the transferring averages. It incorporates the common true vary in its calculations, which helps merchants establish market tendencies.
Earlier confirmations from these two indicators have been adopted by 85.5% and 66% drawdowns throughout the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, as proven within the chart beneath.
Altcoins are nonetheless caught within the downtrend as TOTAL2 consolidates inside an ascending triangle.
“Altcoin market cap is coiling right into a brutal downtrend,” Merlijn The Dealer stated in an X publish evaluation.
Help at $1.15 trillion is holding for now, however “if this triangle breaks, we may see a -30% flush” to $830 billion, the analyst stated, including that the “altseason will not be coming” till the resistance at $1.68 trillion is damaged.
“Alt season won’t ever happen once more,” stated CryptoDaddi in a latest publish on X, including that going ahead, cash might be concentrated right into a choose few altcoins.
“There’ll NEVER be one other Rising Tides rally the place all the pieces pumps. Ever.”
Bitcoin’s unshakable dominance
Bitcoin’s (BTC) grip on the cryptocurrency market has tightened in 2025, leaving little room for altcoins to outperform.
After pushing previous 65% in June, Bitcoin dominance — a metric measuring Bitcoin’s market share relative to the general crypto market — dropped to 57% in September.
Since then, the metric has been on an upward pattern, recording increased highs and better lows, as proven within the chart beneath.
On the time of publication, BTC dominance is at 59.27%, indicating that it’s nonetheless Bitcoin season.
This metric has not dropped beneath 50% since September 2023, which has beforehand marked the beginning of the altseason.
This can be a structural shift pushed by institutional adoption that got here after the approval and success of Bitcoin ETFs, which have attracted billions from conventional finance.
Establishments like BlackRock and Constancy prioritize Bitcoin for its adoption, relative stability and regulatory readability, viewing altcoins as riskier and fewer liquid.
It’s not simply aggressive shopping for by Technique both. BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF attracted over $25 billion in inflows in 2025, reinforcing the desire company consumers have for BTC over altcoins.
Bitcoin dominance is printing the next low, and cash is rotating again into BTC, not alts,” stated CyrilXBT in an X publish, including:
“Proper now, BTC remains to be absorbing the room.”
It’s nonetheless Bitcoin season
In the meantime, key indicators the crypto business makes use of to find out an incoming altcoin season counsel it’s nonetheless nowhere in sight.
In accordance with Capriole Investments’ Altcoin Hypothesis Index, solely 21% of the highest altcoins have outperformed BTC over the past three-month interval, suggesting capitulation amongst altcoin holders.
Moreover, the Crypto Market Breadth — a measure of market power — reveals that solely 8% of all altcoins are buying and selling above their 50-day transferring common, suggesting that the altcoin market is extraordinarily weak.
Equally, CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index, which measures the highest 100 cryptocurrencies towards Bitcoin’s efficiency over the previous 90 days, is studying a rating of 18 out of 100, leaning towards a extra Bitcoin-dominated market, referring to it as “Bitcoin Season.” Altcoin season is when the proportion is above 75%.
“CMC Altcoin Season Index is at a report low,” stated altcoin dealer Cash Ape in an evaluation on X, including:
“They name this a ‘Bitcoin season.”
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin has outperformed most different cryptocurrency sectors in latest months, indicating that capital and funding proceed to favor Bitcoin.
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This text doesn’t comprise funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call. Whereas we try to offer correct and well timed data, Cointelegraph doesn’t assure the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any data on this article. This text could comprise forward-looking statements which might be topic to dangers and uncertainties. Cointelegraph won’t be chargeable for any loss or injury arising out of your reliance on this data.
