One thing caught my consideration on the every day chart of Rio Tinto (RIO) this week, and it wasn’t the sharp restoration off the current lows, although that is value noting too. It was the trendline beneath all of it. This factor has been working since mid-2024, quietly doing its job, and each time I’ve come again to this chart over the previous a number of months, it is nonetheless there, intact, with value respecting it like a flooring meaning one thing.
Rio Tinto is without doubt one of the world’s largest mining and metals firms, extracting and processing iron ore, copper, aluminum, and lithium throughout a few of the most resource-rich areas on the planet. The inventory has a macro story connected to it, however what I care about right here is the technical one, and that story begins with this up-sloping trendline that has produced a constant sample of upper lows going again practically a yr.
Consider that trendline as a staircase that patrons maintain rebuilding. Each time value has pulled again into it, a brand new step has fashioned. We noticed it within the fall. We noticed it in early 2026. And we simply noticed it once more.
Worth got here again laborious towards that rising assist, touched it, and is now recovering towards $94.45. That is three significant interactions with the identical construction, and every one provides to the burden of what it represents. A trendline that will get examined and holds isn’t a coincidence. It is demand.
The overhead resistance at $98.06 is the place the chart poses its most vital query. RIO tagged that stage earlier within the cycle and rejected laborious. The selloff from $98.06 all the way in which again to the trendline was the market telling you precisely the place the ceiling is. Worth has now bounced and is working again towards it, which units up crucial query on this chart: can RIO shut above $98.06 on a confirmed every day foundation?
My view is that the bulls are within the driver’s seat for now, and the trendline is the explanation. So long as value continues to submit confirmed every day closes above that rising assist, the construction is undamaged and the trail towards $98.06 is the one I am watching.
A confirmed shut above that resistance stage opens the door to recent highs, and given how cleanly this chart has revered each ranges, that is a setup value monitoring with actual self-discipline.
The bear case exists, however it wants affirmation to matter. The extra typically a assist stage will get examined, the extra it asks of the patrons. We have had three interactions with this trendline now, and every one carries just a little extra stress than the final. A confirmed every day shut beneath it, not an intraday dip however a real shut under, adjustments the image and places the $84 to $85 space again in focus as the subsequent logical resting level.
The trendline has earned my respect. Till value tells me in any other case on a closing foundation, RIO belongs to the bulls, and $98.06 is the extent I am watching to learn how a lot additional this transfer has left in it.
