Bitcoin’s worth motion has seen all of it: five-digit collapses, regulatory crackdowns, trade implosions, and bear markets that lasted the higher a part of two years. By each a type of occasions, one document has been unblemished: Bitcoin has by no means closed January, February, and March all within the crimson inside the similar calendar 12 months. Not as soon as in its complete buying and selling historical past. Nevertheless, with only some days left in March 2026, that untouched document is now on life help.
The Numbers That Inform The Story
Bitcoin is heading into the ultimate stretch of March with a chance of three straight dropping opening months to a 12 months, a setup it has by no means beforehand recorded in its buying and selling historical past. The Coinglass month-to-month returns heatmap lays out the scenario with uncomfortable precision. January 2026 closed down 10.17%. February adopted with a 14.94% loss, which additionally created a document of the primary consecutive crimson February after a 17.39% loss in 2025.
March is now prone to closing in unfavorable territory, with Bitcoin buying and selling round $67,750 on the time of writing towards a month-open worth of $66,970 following February’s shut. That places March’s month-to-date return at roughly 0.31%, with one buying and selling day remaining earlier than the month-to-month candle seals shut.
Bitcoin Month-to-month Returns (%). Supply: Coinglass
Cross-referencing the total historic dataset, no 12 months in Bitcoin’s trackable worth historical past (2013 to 2026) produced three consecutive crimson month-to-month closes to open the 12 months. There have been years with brutal particular person months: January 2015 misplaced 33.05%, January 2018 dropped 25.41%, and February 2014 fell 31.03%. Nevertheless, in every case, not less than one of many three opening months recovered to shut inexperienced, however 2026 has produced none of that reduction.
Attainable Six Months Of Consecutive Losses
Bitcoin has been on a lengthy stretch of month-to-month crimson closes because it reached its October 2025 all-time excessive above $126,000. This led to 5 consecutive crimson closes in February 2025, which was the second time in its historical past. That document is now prone to extending to 6 month-to-month crimson closes relying on how March ultimately performs out.
The circumstances behind this efficiency are a convergence of pressures that mounted steadily over the previous six months. Because it stands, investor sentiment on Bitcoin has corroded to multi-year lows, and it’s now at its lowest ranges for the reason that 2022 bear market.
Because it stands, your complete Q1 2026 is at a crimson efficiency of -22.6%. The Q1 2026 efficiency is the weakest opening quarter since 2018, when Bitcoin misplaced 50.7% of its worth between January and March. That 12 months’s first-quarter injury was extra extreme in absolute phrases, however February gained 0.47%.
On the time of writing, Bitcoin is buying and selling at $67,750 with someday left to write down the ultimate line of a chapter most buyers didn’t count on to see written at first of the 12 months.
Featured picture created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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