I’ve been watching oil market commentary for some time. CEOs are typically measured. They communicate in ranges. They qualify. They hedge. It has been 92 days for the reason that U.S. and Israeli army marketing campaign towards Iran started on February 28, 2026.
That’s what made Chevron CEO Mike Wirth’s remarks on the Bernstein forty second Annual Strategic Selections Convention on Might 28, 2026, so hanging.
He wasn’t hedging.
“The buffers and the shock absorbers are being steadily drawn down, and the flexibility for the market to soak up this imbalance is drastically diminished in the present day versus the place we began,” Wirth stated, based on Looking for Alpha.
Wirth went additional: “Over the subsequent few weeks, we’re more likely to see these pressures movement by extra on to bodily costs, and there is extra upwards strain that I’d anticipate as we get into June and definitely into July.”
That could be a particular, directional warning from the CEO of one of many world’s largest power firms. The Iran battle has been grinding by international oil reserves for greater than ten weeks. The cushion that absorbed the preliminary shock is almost gone. And the info is beginning to verify what Wirth is describing.
What the stock numbers reveal. The cushion is nearly gone
The EIA‘s weekly petroleum standing report, launched Might 28 for the week ending Might 22, places laborious numbers on what Wirth described.
U.S. business crude oil inventories fell 3.3 million barrels in a single week, based on the EIA report. At 441.7 million barrels, U.S. crude shares are actually roughly 2% under the five-year common for this time of yr. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell 9.1 million barrels to 365.1 million barrels in the identical week, based on the identical report.
The product image is equally careworn:
Motor gasoline inventories are 6% under the five-year common
Distillate gasoline inventories are 11% under the five-year common
Whole business petroleum inventories fell by 8.3 million barrels within the week Supply: AIA Weekly Petroleum Standing Report
West Texas Intermediate crude was buying and selling at $100.35 per barrel on Might 22, based on the EIA — up $37.46 from a yr in the past. It has retreated, however nonetheless stays a lot increased than earlier than the battle, close to $88.
The nationwide common retail worth for normal gasoline reached $4.475 per gallon on Might 18, up $1.315 from a yr in the past, based on the identical report. Diesel was averaging $5.523 per gallon, a $2.036 enhance yr over yr.
The IEA‘s Might 2026 Oil Market Report provides the worldwide dimension. International noticed oil inventories drew down by 129 million barrels in March and by an additional 117 million barrels in April, based on IEA knowledge.
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Group for Financial Co-operation and Improvement (OECD) nations’ on-land shares fell 146 million barrels in April alone — a drawdown of 4.9 million barrels per day.
Cumulative provide losses from Gulf producers for the reason that begin of the battle have exceeded one billion barrels, with greater than 14 million barrels per day now shut in, based on the IEA.
The IEA’s international image frames how critical the availability shock truly is
The numbers Wirth cited at Bernstein align exactly with what the IEA described in its Might 2026 Oil Market Report. International oil provide declined an additional 1.8 million barrels per day in April to 95.1 million barrels per day, bringing whole losses since February to 12.8 million barrels per day, based on the IEA.
North Sea Dated traded in an “unparalleled” vary of virtually $50 per barrel in April, averaging $120.36 per barrel for the month, based on IEA knowledge.
The benchmark swung from a excessive of $144 per barrel to under $100 per barrel and again to roughly $110 per barrel in latest weeks, pushed by conflicting indicators over whether or not the U.S. and Iran will attain a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
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The newest geopolitical improvement provides urgency. Based on The Guardian, President Trump has circulated a draft peace settlement with Iran.
Nonetheless, Washington struck what it described as an Iranian drone operation close to the Strait of Hormuz, following which Iran focused a U.S. airbase in Kuwait on Might 28, suggesting the battle stays energetic whilst ceasefire discussions proceed.
Exxon’s Dan Chapman added an much more alarming near-term worth state of affairs, suggesting bodily Brent cargo costs may attain $150 to $160 per barrel when inventories hit all-time lows within the coming weeks, based on Looking for Alpha.
The IEA tasks international oil demand to contract by 420,000 barrels per day for 2026 as an entire.Bloomberg through Getty Photographs
Who will get hit hardest, and what it means for American drivers and the economic system
Chevron’s (CVX) Wirth was particular about geographic publicity. Asia faces probably the most acute threat due to its dependence on Center Japanese provide. Japan sources over 90% of its oil imports from the area.
Imports from the Center East dropped by 67.2% in April alone, in comparison with the identical month of 2025, based on Tank Terminals.
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Chinese language seaborne crude imports fell 3.6 million barrels per day from February to April, based on Kpler knowledge cited within the IEA report.
Japan’s imports fell by 1.9 million barrels per day and Korea’s by 1 million barrels per day over the identical interval.
What about American households?
For Individuals, the transmission mechanism from international provide shock to private funds is already seen. Gasoline at $4.475 per gallon is a tangible price that compounds throughout each weekly fill-up, each supply truck, each airline ticket.
Diesel at $5.523 per gallon flows instantly into the value of products transported by street. The IEA tasks international oil demand to contract by 420,000 barrels per day for 2026 as an entire, 1.3 million barrels per day weaker than its pre-war forecast, based on EIA.
Extra Oil and Gasoline:
The petrochemical and aviation sectors are presently absorbing the steepest losses. Demand destruction, the IEA famous, will more and more weigh on broader gasoline use as costs stay elevated.
Whether or not a deal materializes earlier than the summer season driving peak season will decide how a lot additional strain customers take in. Wirth’s message was that the market mustn’t look forward to that deal to occur earlier than anticipating increased costs.
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