Quick informal restaurant standout Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) inventory has tanked 50% from its 2024 highs after a tough 2025 noticed its same-store gross sales dip -1.7% YoY—its first drop in over 20 years.
Chipotle launched a turnaround plan earlier this yr to win again extra of its core clients, who’re being hit arduous by inflation and a troublesome financial backdrop. It is usually price noting that CMG is coming off a large stretch of top- and bottom-line progress that was all the time going to be troublesome to compete towards.
CMG is projected to increase its same-store gross sales in 2026 and submit robust income progress in 2026 and 2027. Its earnings are projected to dip barely this yr, earlier than bouncing again in an enormous approach subsequent yr.
CMG is looking for assist at some key technical ranges, and its common Zacks value goal marks 34% upside from Wednesday’s ranges. On high of that, Chipotle inventory gives 100% upside if it returns to its peaks.
Greatest S&P 500 Inventory to Purchase Now for 100% Upside: CMG
Chipotle helped kick off the fast-casual restaurant craze, inspiring many others to enter the area within the shifting eating panorama. The burrito big exploded in recognition on account of its easy, constant menu made with recent and high quality substances.
The corporate ended the primary quarter of 2026 with roughly 4,090 places, up from 3,781 within the year-ago interval. Chipotle operates a overwhelming majority of its eating places within the U.S., with a rising footprint in Canada.
The fast-casual burrito chain benefited from its profitable push into cell ordering, supply, and different digital-focused initiatives. And it’s at present engaged on increasing its additional past North America to attempt to turn out to be a “international iconic model.”
Picture Supply: Zacks Funding Analysis
Chipotle doubled its income between 2020 and 2025, highlighted by three years in a row of ~14% YoY income progress between 2022 and 2024 after blockbuster 26% YoY enlargement throughout the post-covid lockdown euphoria of 2021.
CMG additionally grew its GAAP earnings by over 350% between 2020 ($0.25 a share) and 2025 ($1.14 a share).
Its comp gross sales declined -1.7% in 2025 as its core clients in the reduction of amid lingering inflation, elevated quick informal competitors, and different headwinds (this additionally got here towards 4 years of between 7% and 19% YoY same-store progress).
Is CMG Inventory’s Progress Comeback Already Underway?
The burrito chain launched a turnaround plan earlier this yr centered on regaining its worth proposition, recommitting to the best degree of ingredient requirements and portion sizes, and extra.
Its five-part “Recipe for Progress” technique contains “defending and strengthening the core by driving operational and culinary excellence to ship distinctive worth for our company.”
Picture Supply: Zacks Funding Analysis
On high of that, it’s centered on “accelerating menu improvements… increasing its international attain by scaling with intention by confirmed, company-owned and partner-operated markets, in addition to strategic new areas,” and extra.
Chipotle in April launched an up to date model of its rewards program to encourage its core clients to return, particularly Gen Z and Millennials.
Buyers also needs to needless to say CMG nonetheless gives an ideal worth proposition in comparison with the likes of McDonald’s MCD and others, as their costs surge. On high of that, Chipotle sells recent, comparatively wholesome meals which might be unlikely to exit of favor, particularly as extra individuals give attention to their well being.
CMG elevated its comparable restaurant gross sales by 0.5% within the first quarter of 2026. Trying forward, it’s projected to increase its same-store gross sales by 1.1% in 2026, primarily based on Zacks Key Firm Metric estimates.
Picture Supply: Zacks Funding Analysis
Total, it’s projected to develop its income by 8.4% in 2026 (topping 2025’s 5.4%) and one other 11% subsequent yr to achieve $14.34 billion. Its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are anticipated to dip 3.4% this yr (its first decline since 2020), earlier than bouncing again and climbing 20% in 2027 to new highs.
The chart above highlights its robust long-term earnings progress outlook, serving to cement its bull case.
Purchase CMG for Worth, Progress, and Upside in an Overheated Market
Chipotle inventory skyrocketed roughly 2,750% prior to now 20 years to blow away its trade’s 380%, the S&P 500’s 540%, and McDonald’s 745%. Its 50% drop from its 2024 highs has it buying and selling the place it was all through most of 2021 and 2022.
Picture Supply: Zacks Funding Analysis
CMG has discovered assist close to the important thing vary above over the past yr, whereas buying and selling at a few of its most oversold RSI ranges prior to now 20 years.
Its downturn, combined with its robust earnings outlook, has it buying and selling at its lowest ahead earnings multiples prior to now 15 years, with 2008/2009 the one time it traded decrease.
Picture Supply: Zacks Funding Analysis
Chipotle is buying and selling 70% under its highs, 32% under its 20-year median, and never too far above its trade (when factoring in its huge outperformance) at 27.2X ahead 12-month earnings. Its 2024 inventory break up helps its commerce at roughly $33 a share, which could make it extra enticing to some.
Radical New Know-how May Hand Buyers Big Good points
Quantum Computing is the subsequent technological revolution, and it could possibly be much more superior than AI.
Whereas some believed the know-how was years away, it’s already current and transferring quick. Giant hyperscalers, equivalent to Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Oracle, and even Meta and Tesla, are scrambling to combine quantum computing into their infrastructure.
Senior Inventory Strategist Kevin Prepare dinner reveals 7 fastidiously chosen shares poised to dominate the quantum computing panorama in his report, Past AI: The Quantum Leap in Computing Energy.
Kevin was among the many early consultants who acknowledged NVIDIA’s monumental potential again in 2016. Now, he has keyed in on what could possibly be “the subsequent massive factor” in quantum computing supremacy. Right this moment, you have got a uncommon likelihood to place your portfolio on the forefront of this chance.
See High Quantum Shares Now >>
McDonald’s Company (MCD) : Free Inventory Evaluation Report
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) : Free Inventory Evaluation Report
This text initially revealed on Zacks Funding Analysis (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the writer and don’t essentially mirror these of Nasdaq, Inc.
