ING’s Chief Economist for Better China, Lynn Track, notes that Taiwan’s April commerce information confirmed slower export and import development versus expectations, with the commerce surplus easing to USD14.35bn. Semiconductor and equipment exports remained robust, whereas larger Oil costs began to elevate import values. ING nonetheless expects sturdy commerce momentum and sees upside dangers to its 2026 Gross Home Product (GDP) development forecast of 8.2% YoY.
Exports miss forecasts however momentum holds
“Taiwan’s export development slowed to 39.0% YoY in April, down from 61.8% YoY in March, and falling effectively in need of market forecasts on the month.”
“One space the place Taiwan is constant to see constructive indicators is the export value index, which continued to speed up for an eighth consecutive month to 18.0% YoY, reaching a multi-year excessive. So long as the demand for top-end AI chips stays sturdy, Taiwan’s commerce prospects stay brilliant.”
“Greater vitality costs are more likely to feed via to spice up Taiwan’s imports.”
“Whereas the April information was the primary miss for Taiwan’s commerce information shortly, each exports and imports are nonetheless rising strongly, and export orders information means that this momentum ought to proceed for a while not less than. Even so, export development could average later this yr, significantly as tougher base results come into play, particularly within the fourth quarter.”
“Nonetheless, Taiwan is effectively positioned to see one other robust yr of financial development this yr, and after a robust begin to the yr, we expect dangers are nonetheless balanced to the upside for our present 2026 GDP forecast of 8.2% YoY.”
(This text was created with the assistance of an Synthetic Intelligence device and reviewed by an editor.)
