Somewhat than buying and selling in utterly random patterns markets typically transfer in rotations. Capital is continually flowing throughout sectors, geographies, and asset courses, concentrating in areas the place progress, narrative, and momentum align. The problem for traders isn’t simply figuring out good companies, however understanding the place that capital goes subsequent. Proper now, these flows have gotten more and more concentrated, and some dominant themes have clearly separated themselves from the remainder of the market.
One technique to observe these international flows is to measure trailing returns and momentum. I have a look at 100+ thematic, issue, nation, and every other index or ETF I can get my arms on to seek out what’s main in each the near-term and long-term. By measuring each brief and long-term momentum, I can get an thought of what could also be a extra transient pattern and what might have legs. When each the brief and long-term momentum measures align, it’s often an excellent signal of a robust pattern.
Three clear themes bounce out to me proper now.
Theme 1: AI & Semiconductors
ETFs: South Korea (EWY), Taiwan (EWT), Semiconductors (SMH), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
The AI infrastructure buildout stays the dominant secular pattern in international equities. What’s notable within the momentum knowledge is that this is not only a US story anymore. The AI provide chain is pulling within the Asian semiconductor economies with actual drive.
Picture Supply: Zacks Funding Analysis
South Korea’s market has surged in 2026, with EWY leaping roughly 80%, pushed nearly fully by AI-driven demand for reminiscence chips. Samsung Electronics, which simply joined the $1 trillion market cap membership, and SK Hynix collectively make up about 45% of EWY’s weighting, and tight provide situations throughout high-bandwidth reminiscence and conventional DRAM are fueling the transfer. In the meantime, EWT has returned about 50% this 12 months, with Taiwan Semiconductor representing over 22% of the fund and data expertise making up 66% of the portfolio.
The important thing perception from a momentum perspective is that EWY and EWT aren’t simply following SMH and QQQ, however are confirming the AI pattern from a special angle. Whenever you see the US chip designers, the Korean reminiscence producers, and the Taiwanese foundries all displaying robust momentum, it tells you the demand sign is broad-based and structural.
Capital expenditure from the 5 largest expertise firms surged previous $400 billion in 2025 and is ready to extend by an extra 75% this 12 months. That type of spend does not reverse on a dime. It is a multi-year capex cycle, and the semiconductors powering it stay on the middle of the commerce.
Theme 2: Different Vitality
ETFs: Lithium & Battery Tech (LIT), Photo voltaic (TAN), Uncommon Earth and Strategic Metals (REMX), Uranium (URA), International Clear Vitality (ICLN)
That is the theme that may shock individuals. Different power ETFs have been left for lifeless after the 2022-2024 drawdown pushed by rising charges, expiring incentives, and coverage uncertainty. Now they’re again with a vengeance, and the momentum indicators are robust throughout the board.
LIT gained 137% over the previous 12 months. ICLN is up about 26% year-to-date and roughly 70% over the previous 12 months. URA has a 31% YTD return, and REMX has delivered 44% YTD.
Picture Supply: Zacks Funding Analysis
Two structural forces are converging to drive this robust efficiency, and albeit, it appears that evidently the entire theme has been underfollowed contemplating how effectively they’ve executed.
First, AI itself. The irony is that the largest progress story in expertise is creating huge demand for precisely the type of agency, clear baseload energy that nuclear, photo voltaic, and battery storage present. The pipeline of offtake agreements between knowledge middle operators and small modular reactor tasks has grown from 25 GW on the finish of 2024 to 45 GW in the present day. Knowledge middle electrical energy consumption may strategy 1,050 TWh by the tip of 2026 , which is sufficient to make knowledge facilities the fifth-largest power client on this planet in the event that they have been a rustic. Tech firms are signing long-duration contracts for carbon-free energy at a scale the prior renewable cycle by no means needed to soak up.
Second, the Hormuz disaster has reframed power safety as a first-order geopolitical concern. WTI crude has been hovering within the mid-90s to low-100s because the battle persists. As increased fuel costs lower into family budgets and power costs decrease enterprise margins, the consideration for EVs and various power sources once more develop into viable. Nations that have been ambivalent about nuclear are actually accelerating timelines, whereas battery storage is being revalued as grid insurance coverage.
The momentum alignment throughout uranium, lithium, photo voltaic, uncommon earths, and broad clear power tells me this is not a one-off sentiment commerce. These are structurally linked themes feeding off one another.
Theme 3: Commodities (Ags, Oil, Metals)
ETFs: Commodity (GSG), Oil (USO), Metals and Mining (XME), Copper (COPX), Agriculture (DBA), Gold Miners (GDX), Peru (EPU), Brazil (EWZ)
The commodity advanced is lit up, and the Strait of Hormuz disaster has been an accelerant. The strait usually facilitates the transit of round 20 million barrels of oil per day, representing roughly 20% of world seaborne oil commerce. Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel on March 8 for the primary time in 4 years, rising to $126 per barrel at its peak, with the largest-ever month-to-month enhance in oil costs occurring in March 2026.
As of this week, Brent and crude hover round $100 per barrel and Exxon’s CEO warned that the market hasn’t absorbed the complete affect of the availability disruption but, noting there may be “extra to come back if the strait stays closed.”
However the commodity momentum is not nearly oil. Copper costs vaulted to new information within the first weeks of 2026, whereas gold and silver have made important positive factors over the past 12 months and proceed to carry up. Commodity producing nation ETFs like EWZ and EPU are placing up huge numbers as effectively.
The Broad Commodity Tracker GSG rose 25% in March alone, lifting YTD efficiency to just about 50%. The breadth right here issues, as power, valuable metals, industrial metals, and agricultural commodities are all displaying momentum, which is an indication of a real commodity cycle and probably some inflationary pressures, somewhat than a single provide shock.
Picture Supply: Zacks Funding Analysis
Each copper and aluminum are projected to come across additional provide shortages that will push costs increased, as the worldwide transition to scrub power and electrification continues to drive structural demand. This connects immediately again to the choice power theme as you possibly can’t construct the clear power transition with out copper, lithium, uncommon earths, and the bodily commodities that go into each photo voltaic panel, battery cell, and reactor.
The Takeaway: Three Themes, One Interconnected Cycle
What makes this second attention-grabbing from a momentum perspective is how tightly linked these three themes are. AI demand is driving semiconductor momentum and creating large new demand for clear power. The Hormuz disaster is pushing commodity costs increased and accelerating the case for power independence by way of renewables and nuclear. The clear power buildout requires the very commodities which can be rallying.
Whenever you see momentum alignment throughout this many ETFs, spanning geographies, sectors, and asset courses, and the themes are basically reinforcing one another, that is a sign value taking note of. These are the themes traders ought to be centered on in the present day.
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Invesco QQQ (QQQ): ETF Analysis Stories
United States Oil ETF (USO): ETF Analysis Stories
VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): ETF Analysis Stories
Invesco Photo voltaic ETF (TAN): ETF Analysis Stories
iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ): ETF Analysis Stories
VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX): ETF Analysis Stories
iShares International Clear Vitality ETF (ICLN): ETF Analysis Stories
State Road SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME): ETF Analysis Stories
International X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT): ETF Analysis Stories
iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT): ETF Analysis Stories
iShares MSCI Peru and International Publicity ETF (EPU): ETF Analysis Stories
iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY): ETF Analysis Stories
International X Copper Miners ETF (COPX): ETF Analysis Stories
Invesco DB Agriculture ETF (DBA): ETF Analysis Stories
International X Uranium ETF (URA): ETF Analysis Stories
iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Listed Belief (GSG): ETF Analysis Stories
VanEck Uncommon Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (REMX): ETF Analysis Stories
This text initially revealed on Zacks Funding Analysis (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the writer and don’t essentially mirror these of Nasdaq, Inc.
