I wrote on the 16th November that the very best trades for the week could be:
- Lengthy of the USD/JPY forex pair. Final week noticed the worth rise by 1.17%.
- Lengthy of the S&P 500 Index following a each day shut above 6,920. This didn’t arrange.
These trades produced an general acquire of 1.17%, representing a median win of 0.59% per asset.
A abstract of final week’s most necessary information:
- US Federal Reserve Assembly Minutes – this might need helped weaken the Greenback just a little, however there have been no actual surprises right here. The implied likelihood of a Fed charge lower of 0.25% now requirements at 71%, a significant enhance over final week, in line with the CME FedWatch instrument.
- UK CPI (inflation) – got here in a fraction greater than anticipated, at an annualized charge of three.6%. This didn’t assist the British Pound from dropping floor over the week.
- Canada CPI (inflation) – this was as anticipated.
- Australia Wage Value Index – this was as anticipated.
- USA / Germany / UK Flash PMI Providers & Manufacturing – the US information was higher than anticipated, and higher than the corresponding information in Germany and the UK.
- US Unemployment Price – this unexpectedly ticked greater to 4.4%.
- UK Retail Gross sales – this was a lot worse than anticipated, exhibiting a month-on-month decline of 1.1% when a tiny tick decrease at -0.1% was broadly forecasted. This has most likely helped to weaken the Pound as this means retail demand is absolutely weakening.
- US Unemployment Claims – this was roughly as anticipated.
Final week’s macro information outlined above was not the main driver of the dominant market theme, which was a sell-off of dangerous belongings. Bitcoin has actually stood out as an asset dropping quite a lot of key worth and looking out bearish because it breaks to new lows, however inventory markets are additionally wanting weak as valuation and AI bubble fears persist.
We have now now seen most main inventory market indices fall sufficient to knock out development following establishments from lengthy positions, and additional declines, particularly if we see the S&P 500 Index get established beneath the main spherical quantity at 6,500, we are going to most likely see additional sharp falls.
Friday noticed the US inventory market recuperate a bit, because the 6,500 degree has held for now. Nonetheless, it seems extremely probably that inventory markets and dangerous belongings usually will most likely stay below stress as the brand new week opens.
There was renewed energy within the Japanese Yen on Friday after the Japanese monetary institutions verbal risk to intervene efficiently propped up the Yen, after the USD/JPY forex pair hit a brand new 9-month low not removed from ¥158.00.
Final week additionally noticed a giant swing in expectations of a Fed charge lower within the US subsequent month, with expectations firstly falling as little as 30%, after which rising sharply to finish the week at a a lot stronger 71% likelihood. The US Greenback Index couldn’t commerce at a brand new long-term excessive over the week.
The approaching week will see some essential US information, in addition to an inflation print from Australia, and a coverage assembly by the central financial institution of New Zealand. If any of the information is considerably stunning, particularly any of the US information, it may very well be an fascinating week.
This week’s most necessary information factors, so as of probably significance, are:
- US Core PCE Value Index
- US PPI
- US Preliminary GDP
- US Retail Gross sales
- UK Autumn Forecast Assertion
- Australian CPI (inflation)
- RBNZ Money Price, Financial Coverage Assertion, and Price Assertion
- Canadian GDP
- US Unemployment Claims
Volatility this week is more likely to be at the least as excessive, and probably greater, than the volatility final week.
Foreign money Value Adjustments and Curiosity Charges
For the month of November 2025, I forecasted that the USD/JPY forex pair would enhance in worth.
Its efficiency to date is proven throughout the desk beneath.
November 2025 Month-to-month Forecast Efficiency to Date
Final week, I forecasted that the CHF/JPY forex cross would fall in worth. It did, by 1.69%.
There have been no unusually giant worth motion in forex crosses final week, so I make no weekly forecast this week.
The Swiss Franc was the weakest main forex final week, whereas the US Greenback was the weakest. Directional volatility stayed the identical final week, with 26% of all main pairs and crosses altering in worth by greater than 1%.
Subsequent week’s volatility will most likely be similar to final week’s.
You may commerce these forecasts in an actual or demo Foreign exchange brokerage account.
Key Help and Resistance Ranges
Final week, the US Greenback Index printed a strongly bullish candlestick with solely a minor higher wick. The value is now above its ranges of each 13 and 26 weeks in the past, so by my most well-liked metric, I can declare a long-term bullish development has begun. One other bullish affirmation technically comes from the truth that the worth is holding up above the closest key assist ranges, with 98.55 wanting essential.
The Greenback superior over the week, largely as a consequence of rising risk-off sentiment in inventory markets, though the US Greenback isn’t actually performing as a safe-haven. Additionally, probabilities of a Fed charge lower in December elevated strongly over the week, however this was not sufficient to make the Greenback bearish, though it might need superior much more strongly with out this variation in sentiment.
Now that the US authorities shutdown is over, we are going to begin to get key US financial information releases once more, and there are just a few gadgets due this week, largely in the direction of the tip of the week, which can most likely have an effect on the worth.
I’m comfy being lengthy of the USD.
US Greenback Index Weekly Value Chart
The USD/JPY forex pair weekly chart printed a powerful, giant bullish candlestick that gave up most of its acquire on the finish of the week, creating a really vital higher wick. The US Greenback was powering forward on the expense of the Japanese Yen all week till the Japanese monetary institution threatened an intervention to prop up the Yen when it was buying and selling close to ¥158.00.
Technically, we are able to see the latest bullish breakout from the consolidating triangle chart sample, which most likely helped final week’s explosive advance. Notice that the excessive was close to a key space of resistance which was established some months in the past.
The US’s Greenback is beginning to get into a brand new long-term bullish development. Though the Japanese Yen has quite a lot of long-term weak spot, inflationary pressures and therefore pressures for the Financial institution of Japan to conduct one other charge hike after years and years of ultra-loose financial coverage, are rising, which places a little bit of a query mark over being in need of that forex over the long run.
Pattern merchants will already be lengthy right here, however anybody trying to enter a brand new commerce right here will most likely be well-advised to attend for a each day (New York) shut above ¥157.77 earlier than coming into.
USD/JPY Weekly Value Chart
The USD/CHF forex pair was the primary mover of all the main forex pairs final week, which is uncommon.
The value superior strongly over the week, as proven by the each day chart beneath. The value isn’t precisely inside a strong vary, however the chart beneath reveals a bent to vary, which is normally for this forex pair, which isn’t nicely suited to development buying and selling.
As there’s some bullish momentum, it seems fairly probably that the worth will proceed to advance when the brand new week will get underway however will then falter and make a bearish double high chart sample by rejecting the resistance degree at $0.8118.
With this pair’s tendency to vary, going brief at a double high at such a key excessive seems like a sexy commerce to take if it units up.
USD/CHF Day by day Value Chart
The each day worth chart beneath reveals that this main US inventory index is in bother, regardless of making a file excessive lower than 1 month in the past.
It was one other uneven week, but additionally positively a bearish one. I’ve marked a degree in gold at 6,620 – this was the extent the place if we received a each day shut beneath it, it will set off exits from most development following establishments. Not solely have we seen this bearish signal now, the worth struggled Friday to shut above this degree, which is one other bearish signal.
Many extra establishments shall be holding onto their longs, however a each day shut beneath the large spherical quantity at 6,500 may very well be a game-changer, probably triggering a pointy fall.
We’re nonetheless technically in a bull market, however issues are wanting way more bearish, and I’d not need to be going lengthy except we see new file excessive each day closes above 6,920 – which is extraordinarily unlikely.
However, I actually hate to go in need of this main fairness index.
S&P 500 Index Day by day Value Chart
In my Bitcoin evaluation final week, I noticed a number of bearish indicators (the big candlestick, the breakdown beneath $100,000 after which $95,000).
This was name as the worth fell so far as $81,000 because it made a really steep decline final week. On the time of writing, Bitcoin is down by virtually one-third from its file excessive made simply final calendar month.
Bitcoin tends to respect technical evaluation, partly as a result of it’s such a extremely speculative instrument with few real-world makes use of. So, it’s value noting that we noticed fairly a powerful bullish bounce off the assist degree at $81,203 just some hours in the past. This might be a pure space at which the present downwards transfer might “full” and are available to an finish, so anybody with confidence that Bitcoin is sure to begin heading greater quickly may need to load up on longs as near $81,203 as attainable.
Extra short-term merchants would do higher to exit any brief trades for good earnings and wait on the sidelines to see what develops subsequent with Bitcoin.
BTC/USD Day by day Value Chart
I see the very best trades this week as:
- Lengthy of the USD/JPY forex pair following a each day shut above ¥157.77.
- Lengthy of the S&P 500 Index following a each day shut above 6,920.
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