Iran views the battle as essential for survival, refusing negotiation. The ceasefire by April 7 market sits at 1% YES, down from 12% final week.
This growth from a tier-3 social media supply suggests Iran is dedicated to extended battle, impacting the April 7 ceasefire market most importantly. Odds fell from 2% yesterday to 1% immediately, exhibiting minimal dealer confidence in a swift decision. The April 15 market is at 6.5% YES, additionally declining as a consequence of Tehran’s agency stance.
Additional out, the April 30 market has dropped to 17.5% YES, indicating merchants see little probability of a ceasefire quickly. The Might 31 odds are 36.5%, hinting at some hope for decision, with the most important improve between April 30 and Might 31, suggesting merchants anticipate a possible catalyst then.
Every day buying and selling volumes mirror this sentiment. Actual USDC quantity is $22,948 for April 7, with $12,367 wanted to maneuver the market 5 factors, indicating excessive volatility and low liquidity. The biggest transfer was a 1-point drop within the April 15 market at 1:49 AM, highlighting skepticism about near-term peace.
Iran’s place strengthens a hard-line view, decreasing ceasefire probabilities. At 1¢, a YES share for April 7 would pay $1 if a ceasefire is introduced — a 100x payout. The percentages suggest merchants see this as unlikely. Shopping for would require perception in a serious diplomatic breakthrough inside days.
Look ahead to statements from CENTCOM and any back-channel stories of talks. Intervention by the Sultan of Oman or Qatar might shift the chances. With out such developments, count on bearish indicators to persist.
Markets Impacted
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