Israel’s assault on Iran’s oil amenities and Iran’s disruption of the Strait of Hormuz have hit the chance of a ceasefire. Ceasefire by April 7 is now at 1.1% YES, down from 12% per week in the past.
This escalation has hammered the ceasefire markets. The April 7 market is sort of flat at 1.1% YES. The April 15 market has dropped to six.5% YES from 22% per week in the past. The April 30 market noticed the largest fall, now at 17.5% YES from 40%.
Ceasefire markets are energetic, with quantity at $431,402 in USDC within the final 24 hours. Order guide depth varies — $12,352 is required to maneuver the April 7 worth by 5 factors, exhibiting average liquidity. The most important transfer was a 2-point spike within the April 30 market, possible reacting to sudden information.
Navy escalation makes a ceasefire by early April unlikely. With odds at 1.1¢, a YES share pays $1 if a ceasefire occurs by April 7 — a 90x return. However for that guess to make sense, you’d must imagine a diplomatic miracle occurs in 4 days. Heightened navy actions push the prospect of peace additional out, as evidenced by the substantial lower in odds throughout all near-term markets.
Watch U.S. diplomatic channels and any mediation efforts by Oman or Qatar. If Trump’s administration appoints an envoy or broadcasts new talks, that might jolt these markets.
Markets Impacted
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