Iran has launched a listing of Gulf bridge targets following a coalition strike on the B1 Bridge in Karaj. The chances of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have plummeted to 2% YES, down from 8% only a day in the past.
This escalation has affected a number of markets. The ceasefire by April 15 now stands at 8% YES, down from 18%. April 30 odds dropped to 24% YES, whereas Could 31 fell to 46% YES. The steepest decline was within the April 15 market, with a 10-point drop indicating merchants see early April as unlikely for de-escalation.
The USDC traded in these markets is critical. A 4-point drop within the Could 31 market exhibits a pointy reassessment. With $535,930 in USDC traded throughout sub-markets, and $25,832 required to shift the April 7 market by 5 factors, liquidity is substantial.
Iran’s transfer suggests a shift in army technique over diplomacy. Merchants betting on an April 7 ceasefire might earn $1 per YES share, a 50x return on the present 2¢ worth. Nonetheless, the percentages recommend this consequence is unlikely with out a main diplomatic change.
Look ahead to indicators from CENTCOM or the UN about peace talks. Bulletins from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar might affect these markets. The Sultan of Oman’s involvement or back-channel conferences may alter expectations.
Markets Impacted
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