President Trump is working to finish the battle with Iran and cease nuclear weapons improvement. The chances of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 have fallen to 23.5% YES, down from 40% yesterday.
The market reveals blended reactions. Speedy ceasefire odds are low: April 7 is at 1.8% YES, down from 8% a day in the past. The April 15 market additionally dropped to eight.5% from 18%. Nevertheless, the Might 31 market is at 45.5% YES, suggesting merchants anticipate progress within the coming months.
$535,634 was traded within the final 24 hours, with a big 4-point drop on Might 31. It takes $25,858 to maneuver the April 7 market 5 factors, indicating skinny liquidity. The most important sentiment change is between April 30 and Might 31, hinting at a possible improvement in Might.
Trump’s diplomatic efforts may shift methods, however skepticism persists. The market suggests a possible breakthrough by late Might, with Might 31 YES shares priced at 46¢, providing a 2.2x return if resolved. Merchants are betting on a diplomatic catalyst inside 59 days.
Look ahead to peace talks, CENTCOM statements, or mediation by Oman or Qatar. Rubio and Hegseth’s actions are additionally key to US technique.
Markets Impacted
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