Rubio clarified that Operation Epic Fury focuses on weakening Iran’s army, not reopening the Strait of Hormuz or regime change. Odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 fell to eight% YES from 10%.
Merchants adjusted their ceasefire expectations after Rubio’s assertion. The April 7 market now sits at 8% YES, displaying skepticism a couple of fast finish to hostilities. April 15 odds additionally dropped to 18% from 20%. Nevertheless, optimism for a ceasefire by April 30 rose to 38% YES, up from 36%, as some anticipate diplomatic efforts later within the month.
Ceasefire markets present elevated skepticism short-term after Rubio’s remarks. The most important transfer was a 2-point drop at 8:13 AM for the April 7 market, pushed by merchants adjusting positions with no fast ceasefire sign.
US-Iran ceasefire markets are lively, with $1,365,780 in USDC traded within the final 24 hours. Shifting April 7 odds by 5 factors prices over $15K, indicating sensitivity to reasonable trades. The market is liquid however susceptible to massive trades.
Rubio’s give attention to army motion dims hopes for fast diplomacy. A YES share for a ceasefire by April 7 prices 8¢, paying $1 if resolved, however the army stance makes this unlikely. The market expects extended battle, however sudden diplomacy may change this.
Look ahead to statements from CENTCOM or intermediaries just like the Sultan of Oman. Any indicators of negotiations or softened rhetoric may shift expectations.
Markets Impacted
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