In our replace from final week, we confirmed that the SP500 YTD responded fairly effectively to mid-term election-year seasonality, due to this fact suggesting a low round March 13 and a excessive round March 20. We use “round” as a result of these dates are roughly ±3 buying and selling days.
Quick ahead to in the present day, the index hit its lowest level on March 13 at $6632 and reached a excessive on March 17 at 6754. As of in the present day, March 20, the index is making new lows, buying and selling at round $6500. Due to this fact, the March 13 low was correct, whereas the March 17 excessive was inside a +/-3 trading-day margin of error.
Desk 1: YTD comparability between seasonality and precise market highs and lows
Due to this fact, it’s considerably tough to find out whether or not the March 20 excessive was reached, so we give it a “yes-and-no” verdict. Sure, as a result of it falls inside the margin of error. No, as a result of on the precise day, the index is beneath the March 13 low. Nonetheless, total, the index has topped and bottomed per mid-term election-year seasonality 9 out of 13 instances, arguably 10 out of 13. That could be a dependable scorecard.
Though, after all, previous efficiency is not any assure of future outcomes, it does counsel we should always proceed to count on the market to observe this path going ahead, nevertheless it seems the low round March 31 can be earlier. As illustrated utilizing our Elliott Wave rely in Determine 1 beneath, and since the March 20 prime occurred on the 17th.
Determine 1. Intermediate-term Elliott wave rely for the SPX since October 2025
As at all times, we deal with what’s almost certainly quite than what’s simply potential. The index is about to hit the (black) 0.236 retracement of the rally from the April low, round 6492. Additionally, that’s the place the grey 1.618x extension of W-i is situated: 6493. This can be a frequent goal for a fifth wave in an ending diagonal (ED), as we rely the decline from the February twenty fifth excessive (inexperienced W-b) as an ED (inexperienced) W-c.
Since we’re experiencing a fourth wave correction comparable in dimension to the 2022 decline—which was a second wave—and corrections contain a minimum of three waves, proven right here as a purple W-a, b, and c, it’s unlikely that such a shallow retracement will represent your entire correction. It is potential however unlikely. Moreover, as talked about in earlier updates, seasonality after the April 18 prime suggests a decline into late September earlier than the following rally begins.
Due to this fact, based mostly on the out there goal knowledge, we will forecast that
· This diagonal ought to full round $6490 ± 10 for the purple W-a of the black W-4.
· A countertrend rally will begin when the W-a completes, however it’s only a B-wave, topping out at round $6900+/-100 on April 18.
· That ought to set off one other decline (purple W-c) to a minimum of the 0.382 retracement of the rally from the April low.
Since December, once we launched this seasonality, the market has responded fairly effectively. Due to this fact, transferring ahead, we should assume it should proceed. Nonetheless, we stay vigilant and can—simply as at all times—monitor the worth motion to identify any deviations: anticipate, observe, and regulate if wanted.
