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Egg costs have declined quickly over the past yr because the market normalizes following a big avian flu outbreak that started in 2022, although the specter of a resurgence within the virus may result in volatility later this yr.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Wednesday reported the client worth index (CPI) for February, which confirmed egg costs declined by 3.8% within the month and are down 42.1% from a yr in the past. In contrast, headline CPI inflation was 2.4% larger than it was a yr in the past.
Bernt Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, informed FOX Enterprise that the U.S. egg trade has been on a “rollercoaster of avian influenza detection” since 2022, with detections starting from about 20 million birds affected to just about zero birds, relying on the time of yr.
“Due to this, we have had occasions when the laying flock was broken sufficient to essentially drive costs larger,” Nelson mentioned. He added {that a} dozen eggs price round $4.14 in December 2024 and climbed to a excessive of $6.22 a dozen in March 2025 – however these have since declined to about $2.50 a dozen, in accordance with knowledge from the BLS and the U.S. Division of Agriculture’s (USDA) Financial Analysis Service.
FEBRUARY INFLATION BREAKDOWN: WHERE ARE PRICES RISING AND FALLING THE FASTEST?
Egg costs have been on a roller-coaster in recent times amid provide disruptions resulting from an avian flu outbreak. (Emily Elconin/Bloomberg through Getty Pictures)
Nelson added that as of December 2025, egg costs had been about 12% beneath the five-year common because the market recovered from the avian flu-related worth shocks. The stabilization of the market comes because the USDA has stepped up detection actions to assist mitigate outbreaks.
“USDA has made some dramatic enhancements within the final yr,” he defined, noting that the company provides a wildlife evaluation that appears for tactics wild birds could infiltrate an egg farm in addition to a home evaluation that considers methods to advertise agricultural hygiene comparable to endeavor a foot tub earlier than coming into an egg layer home.
“USDA provides these freed from cost after which it turns into as much as the egg farmer to implement the modifications that they should assist safe their farm,” Nelson mentioned, including that it has “dramatically improved the power to maintain provides within the pipeline.”
INFLATION HELD STEADY IN FEBRUARY AND REMAINED ABOVE THE FED’S TARGET
Egg costs have declined quickly over the past yr as the provision chain normalized from the avian flu outbreak. (I RYU/VCG through Getty Pictures)
Within the final six months, the slowdown in avian flu instances has allowed manufacturing to get well and enhance, bringing costs beneath the extent they had been at earlier than the bigger outbreak started.
Nonetheless, the USDA’s wildlife monitoring has discovered a really excessive viral load in wild migratory birds passing via all 4 of the flyways that cross the U.S. from south to north in current months, which might impression the egg, turkey and broiler industries.
Nelson famous that within the final 30 days there have been about 14 million birds affected, which was larger than a few of the decrease caseload months through the provide chain normalization.
HOW THE IRAN WAR COULD HIT AMERICANS’ GROCERY BILLS
Egg costs stay vulnerable to volatility as farmers proceed to handle avian flu detections. (Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP through Getty Pictures)
He mentioned there have been about 4 million detections in March total, principally attributed to 2 comparatively massive avian flu detections introduced this week that lined 4 million birds at egg manufacturing amenities.
“What that demonstrates is you could have virtually no detections occurring, it may be only a actually low, easy crusing scenario, and swiftly you’ll be able to have a detection at considered one of these larger farms and when that detection it will probably take a number of layers out of the pipeline in a short time,” Nelson mentioned.
“We’re not seeing the impacts of that provide change but, but when we see avian influenza proceed to have an effect on homes like that the place you are seeing a excessive variety of birds affected month to month, it will probably very effectively push costs again up,” he added.
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Nelson mentioned that when egg farmers’ flocks are impacted by avian flu it will probably take an emotional toll on the farmers in addition to trigger monetary hurt, as USDA indemnity packages cowl issues like cleanup prices however does not cowl the manufacturing stoppage that may last as long as six months.
