ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey warn that European gasoline faces rising upside dangers after President Putin signalled Russia might redirect gasoline away from the EU, simply as world LNG flows from the Persian Gulf are disrupted. They spotlight tight EU gasoline storage, vital Russian LNG publicity, and a strained world LNG stability as key helps for larger TTF costs.
Russian menace tightens European gasoline outlook
“We might see a robust open in European gasoline markets in the present day, with President Putin saying Russia will think about redirecting gasoline provides away from the EU. Russian gasoline flows to the EU have fallen considerably lately and flows have been set to progressively begin falling farther from April 2026 via till the top of 2027 amid an EU ban on Russian gasoline imports. This poses dangers to the European stability amid the present provide influence from the Persian Gulf.”
“In the meantime, EU gasoline storage is tight at lower than 30% full and round ranges seen on the identical stage in 2022.”
“Putin’s menace places a sizeable quantity of provide in danger. In 2025, the EU imported nearly 38bcm of pure gasoline/LNG from Russia, 12% of whole EU gasoline/LNG imports. These imports from Russia consisted of 20bcm of LNG and 18bcm of pipeline flows (by way of Turkstream).”
“We consider LNG flows are the important thing threat. In additional regular occasions it could be extra manageable with the worldwide LNG market to see an adjustment in commerce flows over time. Nonetheless, with 110bcm per yr of Persian Gulf impacted at the moment, this is able to be a problem for Europe.”
“Clearly, this information will solely exacerbate provide jitters within the European gasoline market, leaving upside within the short-term to TTF, assuming markets should proceed to face Persian Gulf LNG provide disruptions.”
(This text was created with the assistance of an Synthetic Intelligence software and reviewed by an editor.)
