TL;DR:
- Geopolitical headlines and a 6 PM ET futures check-in set a risk-first tone as markets digest Iran-related weekend violence. Oil erased practically half hole.
- A labor information blitz dominates March 2 to six: ISM PMI Monday, ADP Wednesday, jobless claims Thursday, and jobs report plus retail gross sales Friday.
- Crypto is softer: whole cap again to $2.35T, BTC rejected at $67,000 and close to $66,300, ETH close to $1,950, with main alts decrease.
U.S. markets open into geopolitical noise after weekend U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, and the week’s setup is volatility first, narratives second. Inventory futures have been set to react as buying and selling resumed, whereas crypto was described as flat on Sunday earlier than a retreat. President Donald Trump outlined “Operation Epic Fury,” saying the U.S. will avenge deaths of Individuals, and operations proceed till goals are achieved. The Kobeissi Letter urged buyers to not panic, noting oil erased practically half its hole greater, with futures solely marginally down and gold greater because the mud settles.
Key Occasions This Week:
1. US Futures React to Iran State of affairs – TODAY 6 PM ET
2. February ISM Manufacturing PMI information – Monday
3. February ADP Employment information – Wednesday
4. Preliminary Jobless Claims information – Thursday
5. January Retail Gross sales information – Friday
6. February Jobs Report -…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 1, 2026
Macro calendar and market read-through
This week’s U.S. financial slate is labor-heavy, the dataset the Federal Reserve watches for coverage. In follow, jobs prints grow to be the week’s steering wheel: February ISM Manufacturing PMI lands Monday, offering a learn on manufacturing. The employment tranche begins Wednesday with the ADP Employment report, and Preliminary Jobless Claims observe Thursday. Friday brings the February Jobs Report and in addition contains January Retail Gross sales. The report highlighted expectations for a 60,000 payroll acquire, and a strategist questioned the place the labor market goes after robust January positive aspects however a weak 2025 pattern total.
For crypto, the macro tape is colliding with a market that already appears to be like capped. The report stated whole crypto capitalization slid again to $2.35 trillion, erasing weekend positive aspects as danger resets. Bitcoin was rejected at $67,000 thrice prior to now 24 hours and dipped to about $66,300 within the Monday Asian session, after buying and selling sideways for 3 weeks. Ethereum failed to carry above $2,000 and retreated to round $1,950 on the time of writing, with altcoins largely within the purple; XRP, Solana, Cardano, Canton, and Stellar noticed bigger losses.
The takeaway for merchants is to deal with March 2 to six as a sequencing downside, not a single headline. With markets again within the purple, the Kobeissi Letter flagged futures response at 6 PM ET to the Iran state of affairs, earlier than information accelerates. With PMI, ADP, jobless claims, retail gross sales, and the roles report on deck, positioning could tighten round every print, particularly if BTC retains failing close to $67,000. The playbook is simple: watch liquidity, respect ranges, and keep nimble by means of Friday’s releases and into subsequent week below disciplined danger controls.
