Australia’s coal mining business stays a important pillar of the nationwide economic system, with thermal coal accounting for greater than 60% of whole output and metallurgical coal comprising the rest.
Complete coal manufacturing is estimated to have remained broadly flat in 2025 at 65.3 million tonnes (mt), reflecting solely marginal progress over 2024. This stability was underpinned by the continued ramp-up of the Olive Downs Advanced, which commenced operations in June 2023, alongside deliberate manufacturing will increase on the Saraji, Maules Creek, and Burton mines, and improved stripping ratios and operational effectivity on the Hunter Valley and Dawson mines.
These positive aspects have been largely offset by decrease output from the Ulan coal underground mine because of operational constraints and a short lived suspension of operations on the Moranbah North mine, following a hearth in March 2025.
In 2026, coal manufacturing is forecast to extend by 3.9% to 483.2mt, pushed primarily by a collection of operational developments. Key contributors embody the continued ramp-up of the Maxwell underground mission, deliberate rising capability on the Byerwen and the Narrabri underground mines, and better output from the New Acland mine following the receipt of mine life extensions.
Manufacturing can be anticipated to get better on the Ulan mine as operations normalise following the decision of prior-year constraints. These positive aspects will likely be partially offset by decrease contributions from mature mines such because the Wilpinjong and Springvale, and the closure of Glencore’s Integra mine in 2025.
Over the forecast interval (2026-2035), Australia’s coal manufacturing is projected to enter a structural decline. Output is predicted to contract at a unfavourable CAGR of 0.8%, falling to 448.7mt by 2035. This subdued trajectory displays a mix of long-term supply-side and demand-side pressures, together with the scheduled closure of a number of key mines such because the Griffin coal mine (2026), Clermont coal mine, Springvale mine and Prepare dinner Colliery (2028), and the Chain Valley Colliery and Oaky Creek mine (2029), which collectively produced 132.1mt of coal in 2024.
The manufacturing outlook will likely be additional constrained by weakening world demand for thermal coal, as renewable vitality and pure fuel more and more displace coal-fired energy technology in main consuming markets, together with the US and China. This demand erosion is predicted to speed up the decline in output triggered by mine closures and restrict incentives for large-scale new capability additions.
From a regulatory perspective, Australia’s mining sector is present process a fabric transformation amid rising environmental and sustainability pressures and a strategic shift towards important minerals. The introduction of stricter environmental rules, together with the Surroundings Safety Reform Act 2025, is rising approval scrutiny, compliance prices, and mission improvement timelines, significantly for coal mining initiatives. Whereas clearer regulatory frameworks are supposed to reinforce transparency and long-term funding certainty, they’re additionally anticipated to behave as a near-term headwind to coal sector enlargement.
