The Atlanta Fed’s preliminary GDPNow estimate for Q1 2026 actual GDP progress got here in at 3.1% (annualized) as of February 20, pointing to a stable begin to the yr.
On the identical time, the advance estimate for This fall 2025 GDP, launched right this moment by the Bureau of Financial Evaluation, confirmed progress of simply 1.4% — a notable draw back shock. That determine got here in 1.6 proportion factors under the ultimate GDPNow nowcast for the quarter, and effectively below the Atlanta Fed’s earlier 3.0% forecast.
The miss wasn’t restricted to the mannequin. Economist expectations had been additionally increased, with a Reuters survey exhibiting estimates starting from 1.5% to 4.2%, and a mean forecast of 3.0%. The hole between the modeled and precise This fall outcomes highlights the current volatility in progress dynamics, whilst early Q1 monitoring suggests a possible reacceleration in financial exercise.
In This fall 2025 U.S. GDP – Key Abstract
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This fall actual GDP (advance): +1.4% annualized
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Q3 closing GDP: +4.4% (sharp slowdown into This fall)
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Shopper spending (PCE): +2.4%
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Remaining gross sales to home purchasers: +1.2% vs +2.6% anticipated (weaker underlying demand)
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Core PCE inflation: +2.7% vs +2.6% anticipated (firmer than forecast)
A visible of the contributions confirmed Customers spending and funding added to progress however Authorities, and web commerce had been drags
Takeaways
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Development slowed markedly from Q3, weighed down by authorities spending and a pointy drop within the contribution from web exports.
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Home demand (closing gross sales) got here in weaker than anticipated.
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Core inflation ran barely hotter than forecasts, alongside the December PCE knowledge launched concurrently.
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2025 full-year GDP progress: ~2.23%.
