The workforce at Goldman Sachs is out with their large 2026 Commodities Outlook, and so they aren’t mincing phrases. When you’re searching for a theme to hold your hat on subsequent 12 months, Daan Struyven and the workforce name it: “Trip the Energy Race and Provide Waves.”
The gist? The US-China combat for AI and geopolitical dominance goes to mild a hearth underneath metals, whereas an enormous wave of latest provide goes to drown power markets.
We’ve seen this divergence already in 2025—treasured metals ripping larger whereas oil lags—and Goldman thinks that commerce will proceed.
Listed here are the 5 themes:
-
Goldman’s Prime Commerce: Lengthy Gold to $4,900/oz by Dec ’26
-
Brent seen averaging simply $56 in 2026
-
The “LNG Provide Wave” is big: US exports to surge 50% by 2030
-
Copper to consolidate close to $11,400 earlier than the subsequent AI leg larger
-
Battery metals (lithium/nickel) to get crushed by Chinese language provide
Goldman’s framework is straightforward. On the macro facet, you could have the “Energy Race”—the US and China competing for AI supremacy and geopolitical leverage. That’s bullish for strategic metals. On the micro facet, you could have “Provide Waves”—huge new capability coming on-line in power.
Right here is the breakdown of the actionable concepts:
1. Purchase Gold
Goldman calls gold their “single favourite lengthy commodity.” They see costs hitting $4,900/oz by the tip of 2026. The motive force is central banks Goldman expects them to purchase 70 tonnes per 30 days in 2026. That’s 4x the pre-2022 common.
Goldman Sachs additionally notes that gold ETFs are simply 0.17% of US non-public portfolios. We’re not even near crowded on the retail facet but.
gold every day
Promote Oil
They see oil as a provide sufferer with brent averaging $56/bbl and WTI at $52/bbl subsequent 12 months (spot at $62 and $58, respectively). They are saying the availability wave will finish in 2026 nevertheless it does not matter as a result of the excess is already right here. Except OPEC+ makes huge cuts or we see main disruptions (Russia/Iran), the stock builds are going to weigh on value.
WTI crude every day
3. Maintain copper
Copper has had a monster run — one I have been forecasting for years — however Goldman sees it taking a breather, consolidating round $11,400/t in 2026. They are saying to not ‘t get shaken out by the consolidation. They name copper their “favourite industrial steel” for the long term. The AI/Information heart build-out and electrification demand will put a ground underneath costs. If China stockpiles strategic metals,, that ground will get even larger.
4. Keep away from battery metals
When you’re searching for a backside in Lithium or Nickel, Goldman says maintain ready. China is closely investing in abroad provide (Africa, Indonesia) to ensure safety for the AI/Tech race. Which means a flood of provide is hitting the market no matter value. They see lithium costs dropping one other 25% by year-end 2026.
5. Pure fuel: world glut, however the US is totally different
They see a multi-year LNG provide wave: world LNG provide +50% by 2030 vs 2024, implying decrease ex-US fuel costs over time.
However as a result of the US is the large provider, LNG exports turn out to be export demand for US fuel — tightening the US market sufficient to maintain Henry Hub supported in 2026/27. That reveals up within the unfold name: TTF–Henry Hub narrowing from $8.40 to $5.40/$3.05 in 2026/27, with TTF at 29/20 EUR/MWh and US fuel at $4.60/$3.80.
One other notable tidbit is that they estimate US energy demand development close to 3%, with many areas already at/beneath essential spare capability ranges.
