Statistics Canada reported headline CPI unchanged at 2.2% y/y in November, matching October’s price however coming in barely beneath the two.3% consensus forecast. Month-to-month CPI rose 0.1%, assembly expectations and down from October’s 0.2% improve.
The important thing growth got here from the BOC’s most well-liked core measures, which had stubbornly hovered round 3% since April, when U.S. tariffs started affecting Canadian costs.
Each CPI-median and CPI-trim fell to 2.8% from 3.0% in October, marking the primary time since March that these measures dropped beneath the higher finish of the central financial institution’s 1-3% management vary.
Key Takeaways
- Headline inflation held at 2.2% y/y in November, barely beneath the two.3% consensus however unchanged from October
- Core inflation measures lastly broke beneath 3%, with each CPI-median and CPI-trim falling to 2.8% from 3.0% the earlier month
- Meals inflation accelerated to 4.2% y/y, the quickest tempo since December 2023, pushed by grocery costs rising 4.7% and restaurant prices up 3.3%
- Gasoline costs declined 7.8% y/y, a smaller drop than October’s 9.4% lower, although month-to-month costs rose 1.8%
- Lease inflation cooled to 4.7% from 5.2%, whereas providers inflation slowed to 2.8% from 3.2% as journey prices declined sharply
Hyperlink to official Statistics Canada Shopper Value Index (November 2025)
The slowdown in core inflation helped calm fears that cussed inflation and weak development have been occurring on the similar time, whilst meals costs stayed excessive.
With CPI median and CPI trim lastly slipping beneath 3%, economists see underlying inflation transferring nearer to the two% goal. That helps the concept that the BOC can keep on pause for longer, fairly than speeding into extra cuts or worrying about price hikes.
Market Reactions
Canadian Greenback vs. Main Currencies: 5-min
Overlay of CAD vs. Main Currencies Chart by TradingView
Canada’s two-year authorities bond yields declined 2.3 foundation factors to 2.486%, reflecting some discount in price hike expectations as the information confirmed that underlying inflation pressures have been easing fairly than constructing.
However whereas the easing in core inflation was a constructive signal, the central financial institution had already mentioned at its December 10 assembly that rates of interest have been “about the correct stage” after a hefty 275 foundation factors of cuts. Governor Tiff Macklem additionally made it clear the financial institution is comfy staying on maintain for now whereas it watches how the financial system reacts to ongoing commerce tensions with the U.S.
That is possible why the Canadian greenback didn’t maintain its preliminary post-event strikes through the U.S. session. The Loonie, which firmed shortly earlier than Canada’s CPI launch, briefly dipped on the cooler core CPI prints however quickly noticed combined worth motion in opposition to its main counterparts.
The comdoll discovered an intraday ground just a few hours into the U.S. session, and completed the session close to its pre-CPI ranges. CAD completed the day combined, buying and selling increased in opposition to secure havens USD and CHF and fellow comdolls AUD and NZD, however decrease in opposition to EUR, JPY, and GBP.
