Technique Bitcoin Sale Fears “Flat Unsuitable,” Bitwise Says

Fears that Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy (MSTR) could also be compelled to promote Bitcoin whether it is delisted from MSCI indexes is “flat flawed,” stated Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan.

“I perceive why bears wish to embrace the MSTR ‘doom loop’ thought,” he stated in a Dec. 3 word to purchasers. “It could certainly be very unhealthy for the bitcoin market if MSTR needed to promote its $60 billion of bitcoin in a single go. However with no debt due till 2027 and sufficient money to cowl curiosity funds for the foreseeable future, I simply don’t see it occurring.”

He famous that with Bitcoin’s value at $92k, and it’s buying and selling at $92.9k as of 11:52 a.m. EST, it’s 24% above the typical value at which Technique acquired its stash, Hougan stated.

”There are many issues to fret about in crypto,” he added. ”Michael Saylor and Technique promoting bitcoin just isn’t certainly one of them.”

The considerations come as MSTR finds itself in a funk. Google Finance information reveals that MSTR has plummeted over 23% prior to now month, and virtually 50% within the final six months. 

MSTR value (Supply: Google Finance)

MSCI And Different Index Removals Gained’t Have Such A Huge Influence, Hougan Says

MSCI introduced on Oct. 10 that it was contemplating eradicating digital asset treasury (DAT) corporations from its investable indexes, with a call due subsequent month.

JPMorgan estimates that such a delisting would probably end in as much as $2.8 billion of MSTR inventory being offered, and far more if different index suppliers adopted swimsuit, with some $9 billion of MSTR held by passive fund managers.

“I’m not satisfied that elimination can be an enormous deal for the inventory,” Hougan stated. “$2.8 billion is loads of promoting, however my expertise from watching index additions and deletions over time is that the impact is usually smaller than you assume and priced in effectively forward of time.” 

When MSTR was added to the Nasdaq 100 Index final December, funds monitoring the index had to purchase $2.1 billion of MSTR, Hougan stated, including that the corporate’s inventory value “barely moved.” 

“Lengthy-term, the worth of MSTR relies on how effectively it executes its technique, not on whether or not index funds are compelled to personal it,” he argued. 

In response to fears of the delisting from MSCI indexes, Saylor stated, ”We’re a publicly traded working firm with a $500 million software program enterprise and a singular treasury technique that makes use of Bitcoin as productive capital. Index classification doesn’t outline us.”

Response to MSCI Index Matter

Technique just isn’t a fund, not a belief, and never a holding firm. We’re a publicly traded working firm with a $500 million software program enterprise and a singular treasury technique that makes use of Bitcoin as productive capital.

This yr alone, we’ve accomplished…

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) November 21, 2025

Math Reveals That Technique Has No Purpose To Promote Bitcoin

Hougan additionally stated the easy math doesn’t help the concept of doom loop for MSTR.

“MSTR has two related obligations on its debt: It must pay about $800 million a yr in curiosity and it must convert or roll over particular debt devices as they arrive due,” Hougan stated. ”Each of those obligations aren’t a near-term concern for Technique.”

The curiosity funds aren’t a near-term concern as a result of the corporate has $1.4 billion in money, which means it could actually make its dividend funds simply for a yr and a half, he stated.

Technique’s first debt instrument doesn’t come due till February 2027, and the quantity is barely about $1 billion, which Hougan stated is “chump change” for an organization that at present holds $60 billion in Bitcoin on its steadiness sheet.

Might insiders strain MSTR to promote bitcoin if its inventory continued buying and selling decrease, Hougan requested.

”Uncertain,” he stated. ”Michael Saylor himself controls 42% of the voting shares, and also you’d be laborious pressed to discover a human being with extra conviction on bitcoin’s long-term worth. He didn’t promote the final time MSTR inventory traded at a reduction, in 2022.”

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