Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
One other busy day with pre-market futures method up this morning — it’s days like these the place you pat your self on the again for not having taken all of August off. Following triple-digit positive aspects on the key indexes yesterday, we’re up one other +559 factors on the Dow, +221 on the Nasdaq and +6 on the S&P 500.
Spot oil costs dial again additional — $77 per barrel (/bbl) on WTI and $81/bbl on Brent crude — on renewed hope {that a} deal between the U.S. and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Traders don’t afford themselves any “Lucy and the soccer” cynicism; one in all today, a peace settlement may truly stick — and everybody betting this fashion could have an enormous head begin. Bond yields cooled a pair foundation factors from a day in the past: +4.66% on the 10-year, +4.21% on the 2-year.
June Commerce Deficit Barely Deeper than Anticipated
The U.S. Commerce Steadiness for June got here in at a deficit of -$73.3 billion, barely worse than the -$72.9 billion projected, however a pleasant enchancment month over month — -$77.6 billion reported for Could, and effectively off the all-time low -$133 billion again in March of 2025. Each Imports and Exports lightened their hundreds in comparison with the prior month.
Q2 Earnings Parade: CAT, MCD, BP & Extra
Caterpillar CAT shares are up +11.3% at this hour, giving an enormous increase to the blue-chip Dow index. Earnings of $8.17 per share amounted to a +30.72% earnings beat, as the corporate continues to learn from the bodily knowledge heart buildout pattern. The inventory continues to be a methods from the late-June all-time highs above $1000 per share, however a powerful displaying this morning, however.
McDonald’s MCD outperformed bottom-line estimates in its Q2 this morning by 6 cents to $3.38 per share. Revenues got here in barely beneath expectations, nonetheless, with total same-store gross sales coming in-line total, with some weak spot in U.S. gross sales. Shares are up barely, however nonetheless down double-digits, yr to this point.
BP’s BP Q2 confirmed a stable bottom-line beat, with earnings of $2.22 per share versus $1.98 forecast, for a +12% earnings shock. The oil & gasoline supermajor plans to dump its North Sea enterprise, and shares are promoting off a bit: -1.4% at this hour, however nonetheless up greater than +25% yr to this point.
Archer Daniels Midland ADM added to its sturdy 2026 efficiency with a +29.6% earnings beat: $1.84 per share versus $1.42 within the Zacks consensus. Revenues got here in a tad gentle, however biofuels confirmed promise. Shares are up +2.6% this morning, including to its +35% positive aspects yr to this point.
On the opposite aspect, Spotify SPOT dissatisfied with a -7.34% earnings shock this morning — $3.03 per share versus $3.27 projected — and shares are down -6.2% in early market buying and selling. This takes down the inventory farther from its -16% losses for the reason that begin of the yr.
After the closing bell this afternoon, we count on earnings outcomes from chip big AMD AMD, biopharma main Amgen AMGN and journey platform Reserving.com BKNG, amongst many others. We proceed with the busiest week of Q2 earnings season whilst most of the marquee names have already reported.
What to Count on from the Inventory Market As we speak
The primary of the “Jobs Week” knowledge hits the tape after the opening bell right now, with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for June. Estimates have rolled again barely to 7.4 million from 7.6 million job openings reported a month in the past. Job Quits stay subdued, preserving with the “low rent/low hearth” labor market.
Manufacturing unit Orders for June are anticipated to come back in optimistic once more, to +0.3%, after posting a adverse -1.3% for Could, which was the primary down month of 2026. An enormous drop in non-defense plane orders skewed the numbers a bit a month in the past. That mentioned, if the headline quantity disappoints and is available in adverse once more, will probably be the primary time we’ve seen back-to-back adverse prints since final summer time.
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Superior Micro Units, Inc. (AMD) : Free Inventory Evaluation Report
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