AngloGold Ashanti (AU) is a Zacks Rank #5 (Robust Promote) that’s experiencing the flip facet of the gold commerce. The inventory rode bullion’s historic run to a 52-week excessive of $132 earlier this yr, however shares have since slid to the $80 space.
Gold itself has cooled from January’s file close to $5,626 an oz. to round $4,000-$4,100 right now. When the steel you dig out of the bottom does the heavy lifting in your earnings, a 25%-plus pullback in that steel exhibits up quick within the numbers.
In regards to the Firm
AngloGold Ashanti is a world gold miner with operations throughout Africa, Australia and the Americas, anchored by its flagship Geita mine in Tanzania.
It is a simple enterprise mannequin: dig up gold, promote it close to the spot worth, and let the steel’s route drive the P&L way over any operational lever administration pulls. That is been a present over the previous two years as gold roughly tripled off its 2020 lows, however it cuts each methods when the value turns.
The Quarter Behind the Beat
AngloGold’s final reported quarter regarded robust on the floor, with EPS of $2.52 beating estimates by about 14%. Earnings had been up 186% year-over-year, with a file $1.169 billion in free money circulate.
However income of $3.15 billion missed the $3.34 billion consensus. It is because gold manufacturing held roughly flat at 724,000 ounces, gold really offered fell to 719,000 ounces from 737,000 a yr earlier, partly as a result of December 2025 sale of the Serra Grande mine.
Prices additionally crept increased, with whole money prices rising to $1,391/ouncesfrom $1,223/oz. This implies the bottom-line beat leaned fully on worth, not on promoting extra gold or operating a leaner operation. Administration nonetheless funded a file $1.16/share dividend and a brand new $2.0 billion buyback, however this may change into tougher to repeat if the gold worth that drove it retains sliding.
Estimates Rolling Over
Analyst estimates have been revised decrease throughout the board over the previous 30 and 60 days.
The present-year EPS consensus has come right down to $8.23 from $9.26 sixty days in the past, and subsequent yr’s estimate has fallen to $7.62 from $8.86 over the identical stretch.
Present-quarter estimates have slipped to $2.02 from $2.16.
With that some analysts are reducing worth targets, together with JPMorgan which took its goal to $134 from $155.
Technicals
The inventory has had a giant run since 2024, transferring from $20 to $130, just lately falling to $80. The excellent news is the inventory has held the midway again stage at $75. The dangerous information is that if gold falls decrease, the inventory might see a full 61.8% Fibonacci retrace right down to the $63 space.
The transferring averages will doubtless supply resistance above, so watch the 50-day ay $86 and the 200-day at $90 for promoting.
In Abstract
AngloGold Ashanti is a well-run miner in a tricky spot: its complete 2026 earnings story has been a gold-price story, and that worth has cooled meaningfully off its highs. With estimates trending decrease throughout each timeframe it is a identify the place the chance appears to be like tilted to the draw back into upcoming earnings.
For traders who like their risk-reward balanced, the Zacks Rank #5 says look elsewhere. These thinking about a reputation within the metals, FancoNevada (FNV) is a Zacks Rank #3 (Maintain).
AngloGold Ashanti PLC (AU) : Free Inventory Evaluation Report
Franco-Nevada Company (FNV) : Free Inventory Evaluation Report
This text initially printed on Zacks Funding Analysis (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the writer and don’t essentially replicate these of Nasdaq, Inc.
