Polymarket sees 99.85% odds Israel–Iran ceasefire holds via July 18

Polymarket Ceasefire Ladder Holds Close to-Sure “Sure” After Netherlands Settlement-Product Ban Headline

Polymarket merchants are pricing an almost-certain continuation of the Israel–Iran ceasefire via the near-term rungs of a date-ladder contract, with the July 18 strike at 99.85% Sure on about $1.25M in quantity. The set off within the background is a Netherlands coverage transfer tied to Israeli settlements, whereas the market lens right here is how shortly odds steepen throughout later dates.

Key Takeaways

• Prime rung: “Ceasefire continues via July 18” leads at 99.85% Sure (0.15% No) on Polymarket.
• After the Netherlands settlement-product ban headline, pricing stayed closely skewed to “Sure” near-term, whereas later strikes present extra disagreement about period.
• The ladder runs out to an Aug. 31 strike, and the market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-31 23:59 UTC.

A report says the Netherlands plans to ban merchandise from Israeli settlements beginning September 22. The merchandise is framed as a coverage step linked to settlement-related commerce, somewhat than a direct ceasefire announcement, nevertheless it sits alongside broader political stress that merchants might monitor.

Odds Curve & Liquidity Snapshot: $1.25M Quantity as July 18 Prints 99.85% Sure vs July 31 at 72.5% and Aug. 31 Close to 50/50

This Polymarket market is a price-ladder by date: every end result is its personal binary on whether or not the ceasefire lasts via that particular day, so “July 18” at 99.85% Sure / 0.15% No is just not the identical wager as “July 31” at 72.5% Sure / 27.5% No. The curve exhibits sturdy near-term consensus however widening uncertainty because the horizon extends: “July 22” is 93.5% Sure / 6.5% No, “July 31” is 72.5% Sure / 27.5% No, and “Aug. 31” sits close to a coin flip at 50.5% Sure / 49.5% No. On the headline main rung, odds ticked up barely (99.8% to 99.85%, +0.05 pp) with whole quantity round $1,252,435, in line with a market that’s already priced for continuity somewhat than reacting with a big repricing. The historic abstract flags low volatility with strengthening consensus and a +3.55 pp transfer over each 24 hours and seven days, suggesting current shopping for stress collected right into a near-ceiling value even when the newest change is marginal.

Watch whether or not later rungs (July 25, July 31, Aug. 15, Aug. 31) shift greater than the near-term strikes; that’s the place the contract is at present expressing a lot of the market’s period danger. Additionally look ahead to any new, straight ceasefire-linked updates, for the reason that market is already close to maxed out on “via July 18” however not on the end-of-August outcomes.

What Merchants Watch Subsequent on Polymarket: Later-Date Rungs (July 25/31, Aug. 15/31) and Different Excessive-Quantity Macro/Crypto Cont

Past this date-ladder, merchants usually cross-check adjoining Polymarket contracts to see the place danger is being priced in longer-dated eventualities and key chokepoints. Massive liquidity is sitting in 76.05% on “Iran chief finish of 2026?” (about $33.24M) and 73.5% No on “Will the U.S. invade Iran earlier than 2027?” (about $45.87M), whereas shorter-horizon disruption is concentrated in 98.85% No on “Strait of Hormuz visitors returns to regular by July 31?” (about $18.99M). For a extra straight timing-focused learn, “US x Iran Efficient Ceasefire by…? (2 week pause)” is led by August 31 at 55.5% (about $1.78M), and “Iran full airspace closure by…?” has August 31 at 40.5% (about $5.09M)—helpful comparators for the way the platform is pricing period versus escalation paths.

Odds Development

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues via…?
• Contract sort: Value strike ladder: every rung has separate Sure/No; Sure means the spot value is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Decision window: Aug 31, 2026 (UTC)
• Standing: Lively (open for buying and selling)
• Quantity: ~$1,252,435

Prime strike rungs

+3 extra strikes not proven

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