On June 25, Apple instructed the promote it was elevating costs on MacBooks, iPads, and different gadgets to cowl the price of a world reminiscence chip scarcity.
The inventory fell sharply that day, wiping out the whole lot it had gained 12 months to this point. For an organization that had been on a powerful run, it was a tough afternoon.
Three weeks later, Apple shares have been buying and selling at new all-time highs. And on July 13, Citi analyst Asiya Service provider raised her worth goal on the inventory to $365 from $315, sustaining a purchase ranking and telling shoppers the corporate nonetheless has roughly 16% extra upside from right here, in keeping with Barchart.
What Citi’s analyst mentioned on Apple inventory and what she’s really betting on
Product owner’s thesis is not difficult. The smartphone and PC markets are in tough form, seemingly down a mid- to high-teens p.c in 2026. Apple is gaining floor anyway. That hole between the place the market goes and the place Apple goes is what she’s paying for.
In response to her be aware, Apple is predicted to achieve a file smartphone market share of round 25% this 12 months, up about two proportion factors from the place it was, Investing.com reported.
Extra Apple:
The corporate is doing this by way of design-driven demand, sturdy mid-range positioning by way of promotions and subsidies, and an ecosystem that retains folks from switching.
As TheStreet reported, Apple guided gross margins to 47.5% to 48.5% for the June quarter regardless of rising reminiscence prices, signaling that its pricing energy is holding. Service provider sees the June worth will increase on Macs and iPads not as a pink flag, however as additional proof of that energy.
Service provider is not relying on Apple Intelligence to push folks to improve. That story hasn’t actually materialized but, and she or he does not anticipate it to drive a significant {hardware} cycle. But she thinks a better Siri retains folks contained in the Apple ecosystem longer, and individuals who keep within the ecosystem are inclined to spend extra on subscriptions.
That is the companies angle, and it is the place Apple really generates a lot of its profitability.
How Apple is profitable whereas the machine market shrinks
Apple’s PC enterprise put up 10.1% progress within the second quarter of 2026 in a market that was going the opposite approach. That form of efficiency in a down market comes from a number of structural benefits the corporate has constructed up over years.
Apple’s provide chain is an enormous a part of what makes this work. Most of its opponents purchase reminiscence on the spot market, so when costs spike, their prices spike with them and margins take the hit. Apple operates otherwise. It has long-term provider agreements, tightly managed {hardware} specs, and a buyer base that is used to paying extra and tends to remain anyway. That is why it may elevate costs on MacBooks and iPads in June and nonetheless be buying and selling at all-time highs three weeks later.
The June 25 sell-off regarded unhealthy in actual time. However in hindsight, the market was punishing Apple for doing one thing that truly demonstrated pricing energy. The inventory has since recovered about 15% from that low, and Product owner’s be aware is basically saying that restoration nonetheless has room to run.
The iPhone 18 launch is when Service provider expects investor sentiment to essentially shift.Cheng/Getty Pictures
The 2 occasions on Apple’s calendar that matter most proper now
Apple stories Q3 earnings on July 30, and the setup heading in appears to be like sturdy. Consensus has the corporate incomes $1.88 per share, which might be a 19.75% enhance 12 months over 12 months, In search of Alpha famous.
For an organization Apple’s dimension, that form of EPS progress is genuinely spectacular, and it is a part of why the inventory has been resilient, even when the broader market bought nervous.
After earnings, the subsequent massive catalyst is September. The iPhone 18 launch is when Service provider expects investor sentiment to essentially shift. She frames it as a major inflection level, the second when {hardware} momentum turns into seen in precise demand information slightly than simply analyst projections.
There’s one complication value noting. Apple filed swimsuit in opposition to OpenAI earlier this month, accusing the corporate of systematically stealing its commerce secrets and techniques to gasoline its personal {hardware} ambitions.
The case provides authorized complexity to Apple’s AI story at a second when the corporate is making an attempt to place Siri and its companies enterprise as a long-term progress driver. Product owner’s be aware does not tackle the lawsuit, however traders heading into July 30 will seemingly wish to hear how administration talks about it.
The place Citi’s greater Apple worth goal matches within the broader Wall Avenue image
Citi is not alone in turning extra bullish on Apple. JPMorgan had already raised its goal to $345 earlier this 12 months. Product owner’s $365 now sits above that, making Citi one of many extra constructive voices on the inventory amongst main banks heading into the second half of 2026.
At present costs round $316, a $365 goal implies rather a lot nonetheless must go proper. Apple’s P/E sits at about 38 occasions earnings, which is a premium valuation for any firm, not to mention one in a mature {hardware} class. Product owner’s reply is that the premium is justified by share positive aspects and pricing energy that the majority {hardware} firms cannot replicate.
Apple is up almost 30% from its March low. The inventory was at all-time highs on July 13. And Citi thinks that even with all of that already within the worth, there’s extra to come back.
Whether or not that holds by way of earnings, by way of the iPhone launch, and thru the OpenAI lawsuit would be the actual check of how a lot of Product owner’s thesis the market is keen to cost in.
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