Polymarket odds dip to 67% on Iran Hormuz charges by Dec 31 after strike stories

Polymarket Dips After Qeshm Island Strike Experiences, however Hormuz Payment Odds Maintain Close to 67% by Dec. 31

Polymarket merchants are pricing a 67% likelihood that Iran expenses Hormuz charges by the December 31 strike available on the market’s date ladder, with $1,016,022 matched and the main strike down 2.5 factors from 69.5%. The transfer follows recent stories of explosions and strikes round Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island, providing a transparent learn on how merchants are mapping battle headlines right into a timeline wager.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket’s main strike is “by December 31” at 67% Sure / 33% No.
• After the Qeshm Island strike/explosion stories, the main strike slipped 2.5 factors (69.5% to 67%), signaling a modest pullback in near-term payment expectations.
• The market resolves by 2026-08-31 23:59 UTC, so positioning is about whether or not the coverage is carried out by then—not the later date labels themselves.

Iranian state media stated almost a dozen “enemy projectiles” focused Qeshm Island, with new explosions reported in Bandar Abbas and on Qeshm Island. The report described a fifth wave of US strikes since a ceasefire settlement was signed three weeks earlier, stated army websites in Hormozgan province have been focused, and stated Tehran retaliated in opposition to US army property within the area.

Date-Ladder Breakdown: $1.016M Matched, 67% (Dec 31) vs 50.5% (Aug 31) and 6.65% (Jul 15)

It is a price-ladder (date-ladder) contract: every strike is a separate Sure/No market on whether or not Iran expenses Hormuz charges by that labeled date, and the ladder’s form reveals the place merchants place the timing threat. The entrance finish stays closely discounted—July 15 is 6.65% Sure / 93.35% No and July 31 is 15.5% Sure / 84.5% No—whereas the curve steepens into late summer season, with August 31 at 50.5% Sure / 49.5% No and October 31 at 61.5% Sure / 38.5% No, culminating in December 31 at 67% Sure / 33% No. Regardless of the headline catalyst, the main strike is down 2.5 factors to 67% on $1,016,022 quantity, in keeping with the market’s “average” volatility and “average” momentum quite than a pointy repricing. The historic abstract flags a bearish development however strengthening consensus, which inserts a ladder the place merchants are converging on “later quite than sooner,” even because the mid-curve (across the August 31 strike) stays near a coin flip—an indicator of ongoing disagreement about implementation timing. Additionally vital: the market’s decision date is 2026-08-31 23:59 UTC, so the actionable settlement window is thru that timestamp; merchants ought to interpret later strikes as ladder pricing indicators, not because the contract’s personal settlement date.

Watch whether or not pricing compresses towards the August 31 strike (presently 50.5% Sure / 49.5% No) or re-steepens towards December 31 (67% Sure / 33% No); a shift within the curve, not simply the headline-leading strike, will present whether or not merchants are bringing anticipated implementation ahead. Additionally watch if the $1.0M+ matched quantity continues to rise alongside the 24h/7d internet transfer (each +12.5 within the abstract), which might point out the market continues to be actively incorporating new data into the timeline.

Cross-Market Watchlist: How Hormuz Payment Timing Danger Spills Into Oil Shock, Fed-Minimize, and BTC Volatility Polymarket Contrac

In the event you’re monitoring how this timing threat propagates throughout Polymarket, a number of adjoining contracts are drawing heavy consideration and can assist triangulate sentiment shifts. “Will the U.S. invade Iran earlier than 2027?” is sitting at 80.5% No on $41,334,366 quantity, whereas the operational facet is much more one-sided with “Strait of Hormuz site visitors returns to regular by July 15?” at 99.65% No ($9,959,120) and “Strait of Hormuz site visitors returns to regular by July 31?” at 97.0% No ($16,189,645). On the diplomacy/airspace observe, merchants are additionally watching “Iran pronounces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by…?” (38.5% main on August 15, $4,810,903) and “Iran full airspace closure by…?” (40.0% main on August 31, $3,456,886) for any repricing that would spill again into broader threat and volatility setups.

Odds Development

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: Iran expenses Hormuz charges by…?
• Contract sort: Value strike ladder: every rung has separate Sure/No; Sure means the spot worth is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Decision window: Aug 31, 2026 (UTC)
• Standing: Lively (open for buying and selling)
• Quantity: ~$1,016,022

High strike rungs

+1 extra strikes not proven

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