- The AUD/USD weekly forecast stays bullish amid greenback weak spot.
- Fed repricing with increased odds of a price lower and comfortable macro knowledge weakened the buck.
- Commodity costs and China-linked danger flows supported the Aussie.
The AUD/USD worth closed the week close to mid-0.6500, marking 1.45% good points final week, led by broad US greenback weak spot and agency commodity sentiment.
What occurred with AUD/USD final week
The dominant theme was fast Fed repricing final week. Markets ramped up wagers that the Federal Reserve will start easing in its December assembly, weighing on the US yields and denting the US greenback, which acted as a headwind for the Aussie. In line with the CME FedWatch Instrument, the chance of a 25-bps price lower by the Fed is now close to 87%.
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Commodity costs and China-linked danger flows additionally supported this development. Iron ore and base steel stability supported the time period construction for the Aussie, whereas Asian equities remained resilient, sustaining a constructive danger urge for food.
On the home entrance, Australian knowledge remained combined, with shopper spending displaying pressure, whereas the labor market remained comparatively resilient, leaving the RBA in a affected person and data-dependent stance. The RBA’s impartial tone capped the Aussie’s power. The uptick within the pair was primarily attributed to the softness of the buck somewhat than Australia’s home macroeconomic pivot.
The US knowledge, together with Sturdy Items Orders, Chicago PMI, and Retail Gross sales, confirmed weak spot, whereas Fed members additionally left dovish remarks, cementing the chances of aggressive easing in 2026 as effectively. Liquidity remained skinny into the US Thanksgiving vacation, and the CME outage triggered intraday volatility.
AUD/USD Key Occasions Subsequent Week
The next week’s route relies on three variables:
- Australian GDP
- US knowledge (PMIs and Core PCE) and Fed communicate
- Threat sentiment, relying on China and commodity momentum
Within the occasion of a Fed shock, transferring away from easing, the AUD/USD might see a resumption of the draw back. Nonetheless, the trail of least resistance lies on the upside.
AUD/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Consumers Eyeing 0.6700 Above 200-DMA
The AUD/USD every day chart exhibits constant help by the 200-day MA. Nonetheless, the worth stays inside a broad vary of 0.6400 to 0.6600. The transfer above 20-, 50-, and 100-day MAs suggests a strong case for the upside. In the meantime, the RSI can be heading north at 56.00.
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The bulls might finally intention for the 0.6700 stage, which is the swing excessive for September. Conversely, dropping down, the pair might check the 200-day MA close to 0.6465. Shifting under the extent might check the demand zone at 0.6370-0.6420.
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