Actual Imaginative and prescient Chief Crypto Analyst Jamie Coutts says Bitcoin is shifting right into a extra enticing long-term setup, however a significant US Treasury refinancing wall should still stand between the market and a sturdy bullish reversal.
In a publish on X, Coutts mentioned Bitcoin’s long-term technical backdrop is starting to resemble the sort of construction that may precede a cycle backside. “I’ll be the primary to show bullish on Bitcoin when the long-term technicals hit exhaustion and the development turns,” he wrote. “I’ve argued Q2/Q3 would mark the underside based mostly on historic bear-market buildings. Its enjoying out that manner. The relative setup is approaching very enticing ranges. The asset is within the long-term accumulation zone, imo.”
US Debt Refinancing Wall Might Strain Bitcoin
The problem, in Coutts’ view, is just not merely Bitcoin’s chart. It’s the macro plumbing round it.
He pointed to 2027, when the US faces $3.67 trillion in coupon maturities, a determine he mentioned is 36% above the 2020–2025 common. The refinancing burden displays the repricing of Covid-era debt issued when charges have been close to zero right into a market the place charges are actually within the 4% to five% vary.
For Bitcoin and different danger property, the priority is whether or not present liquidity situations can take up that degree of issuance with out stress within the Treasury market. Coutts argued that liquidity stays a constraint, significantly as capital has continued to rotate away from crypto since late 2025.
“Retail and insto flows have been rotating out of Bitcoin and crypto since This autumn 2025,” he mentioned. “Each marginal unit of liquidity has flowed into AI buildout property. That is sensible. Capital flows to the place it’s handled greatest. Proper now, the capital allocation argument sits with AI equities and commodities. On-chain exercise is again at multi-year lows.”
That rotation issues as a result of Bitcoin’s bull phases have traditionally depended not solely on inner crypto positioning, but in addition on broader liquidity enlargement and danger urge for food. Coutts’ level is that Bitcoin could also be coming into a structurally enticing zone on the similar time liquidity stays scarce and competing asset courses are absorbing the out there capital.
He additionally pushed again towards the market’s concentrate on IPO issuance, arguing that the bigger situation is the federal government refinancing burden and the flexibility of the monetary system to intermediate it. “Whereas the market fixates on IPO issuance,” he wrote, “what considerations me about all danger property is that markets ex-crypto don’t appear bothered by the truth that present liquidity ranges can’t simply take up this refi provide.”
The complication is the Fed’s stability sheet. Coutts famous that Kevin Warsh needs a smaller stability sheet, including one other potential constraint if policymakers attempt to roll a big maturity wall via a system with lowered central financial institution liquidity.
“Sure, they are going to proceed to stuff the quick finish and monetise via the banks,” Coutts mentioned, including that stablecoins are prone to play an “more and more essential position.” However he warned that rolling $3.67 trillion of maturities via a contracting Fed stability sheet “with out a bond market accident could be among the many most spectacular acts of fiscal/financial coverage administration in a era.”
The implication for Bitcoin is nuanced. Coutts is just not dismissing the bottoming case. He’s arguing that the market should still want a macro set off earlier than the following sustained advance can take maintain. In his framework, Bitcoin is prone to sense a shift in Fed-side liquidity earlier than different property, however that shift might not arrive till stress seems in Treasuries.
“I don’t see how they do it with out much more Fed-side liquidity,” he wrote. “Bitcoin will detect it first. However there’s nonetheless an uncomfortable distance to journey. Treasuries might want to begin misbehaving earlier than the coverage needle strikes. That’s the tough half.”
At press time, BTC traded at $63,196.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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