OCBC’s FX Strategist Sim Moh Siong expects the Singapore Greenback (SGD) Nominal Efficient Alternate Fee (NEER) to commerce 1.5–2% above midpoint, supported by de-dollarisation and safe-haven flows, whilst lowered carry tempers its enchantment. With Financial Authority of Singapore (MAS) having tightened in April and additional tightening attainable later in 2026, Siong initiatives USD/SGD to float reasonably decrease towards 1.26 by year-end whereas the pair largely tracks general USD path.
Coverage help underpins Singapore Greenback
“We anticipate the SGD NEER to carry agency inside the coverage band, buying and selling about 1.5 to 2 % above the midpoint. Assist from de-dollarisation and safe-haven flows ought to persist, although lowered carry limits the SGD’s enchantment.”
“With additional SGD positive aspects capped by the band, USD/SGD will largely observe USD path. We’re impartial on the USD close to time period and anticipate it to remain agency however rangebound.”
“MAS tightened coverage barely in April. Elevated oil costs maintain inflation dangers alive and help expectations for additional tightening. Nevertheless, a back-to-back slope enhance in July seems to be much less pressing after the April core CPI undershoot.”
“Progress indicators are blended. 1Q26 GDP shocked on the upside, however MTI highlighted considerably increased draw back dangers from the Iran battle. The outlook is subsequently much less sure regardless of robust latest information. “
“We see scope for USD/SGD to reasonably drift decrease towards 1.26 by year-end, particularly if MAS delivers extra tightening later this 12 months.”
(This text was created with the assistance of an Synthetic Intelligence instrument and reviewed by an editor.)
