The 2025 NFL season strikes to Week 13, which brings about three Thanksgiving video games, a Black Friday contest, 11 Sunday affairs, a Monday evening showdown that includes two groups who’ve met within the Tremendous Bowl twice and, surprisingly, no groups on a bye. Whereas division matchups just like the Detroit Lions taking up the Inexperienced Bay Packers and the Cincinnati Bengals battling the Baltimore Ravens will get essentially the most consideration, bettors may wish to look elsewhere when constructing their greatest NFL cash line parlays.
For those who’re trying to get into parlay betting and NFL betting for Week 13, it’s worthwhile to see what SportsLine knowledgeable Jeff Hochman has to say. He is put collectively two cash line parlays for Week 13, with one that includes solely favorites on the cash line and the opposite that includes solely underdogs.
Week 13 NFL cash line favorites parlay
Betting heavy favorites is usually a stable technique if you wish to guess on a three-team NFL cash line parlay. This strategy focuses on groups with odds of -150 or higher, which implies you lean in direction of high-probability outcomes. By pairing three groups that often have odds between -150 and -350 and even greater, you are not solely aiming for constant, modest returns, however you are additionally stacking the deck in your favor for the next probability of successful. Keep in mind that you may nonetheless parlay a favourite with odds of -140 or much less to keep away from laying 2.5 factors, which may considerably impression your probabilities of successful. Keep in mind, it’s a must to win all three legs for a profitable wager.
In accordance with BetMGM information, NFL cash line favorites at -115 or shorter posted a 68% win share in 2023, with a 66.5% charge in 2022. Over the six-season interval from 2018-24, NFL cash line favorites maintained a 66.6% win charge (1,013-508-7). The energy of favorites correlates straight with their odds. In sports activities betting, if you happen to see groups with odds between -150 and -200, they often have a stable probability of successful, with round a 60-65% success charge. Groups which can be even larger favorites, with odds from -250 to -400, are typically extra dependable, exhibiting win charges of about 70% to 80%. The 2024 NFL season stood out for favorites, with an general win charge hitting 71.8%.
In Week 12, NFL betting chalk had one other stable efficiency going 10-4. NFL betting favorites have gained 124 out of 177 video games within the first 11 weeks of the 2025 season, attaining an general success charge of 70.0%. This determine continues to creep as much as final 12 months’s mark of 71.8%. What does this imply for Week 13? Will the canines bark as they often do in Week 13. Check out Jeff’s prime cash line parlays that includes favorites and underdogs.
Buffalo Payments over Pittsburgh Steelers
Aaron Rodgers is anticipated to play after lacking final week with a fractured left wrist, although he practiced in a restricted capability. Whereas Mike Tomlin said they’ve “nice optimism” concerning his availability, a damaged left wrist to Rodgers’ throwing hand introduces a tangible accuracy threat, significantly on throws requiring full wrist extension (vertical throws, sideline throws). I wish to fade the growing old Rodgers because the season progresses.
Buffalo is ranked first in cross protection within the NFL, permitting simply 168.2 yards per recreation, a statistical outlier that displays each tactical design and personnel, and sixth in opponent passer score (84.2). The Payments have allowed solely 12 passing touchdowns by 11 video games, rating among the many league’s best protection items. I do not see any large receivers on the Steelers’ roster that intimidate me. On the flip facet, Pittsburgh is ranked thirty first, permitting 258.7 receiving yards per recreation. The Payments ought to have a whole lot of success by the air, which can open up their run recreation much more with James Cook dinner (1,084 yards and 7 speeding TDs) main the cost.
Josh Allen is 4-1 straight-up in opposition to the Pittsburgh Steelers in his profession, together with 31-17 as 10-point residence chalk in final 12 months’s playoffs. He is been “cash” after a loss, going 80-35. You already know what to do.
Seattle Seahawks over Minnesota Vikings
I’ll hold this temporary: The Seahawks rank first general in DVOA (Protection-Adjusted Worth Over Common), inserting them among the many best NFL groups previously 50 years. In accordance with DVOA analysis, solely three groups since 1978 have carried out higher by eight video games than Seattle’s present tempo — the 2007 Patriots, 1991 Redskins, and 1985 Bears — all of which reached the Tremendous Bowl. Seattle’s offensive DVOA ranks fourth and defensive DVOA additionally ranks fourth. The mixture is elite.
In distinction, the Vikings’ offense has been inconsistent and their protection has deteriorated considerably. The Vikings are 4-6 and have misplaced 5 of their final six video games, with their offense failing to attain 20 factors in 4 of these six losses. The Vikings’ trajectory on this matchup is decidedly downward. It is so unhealthy in Minnesota proper now the Vikings have seen sufficient of J.J. McCarthy (concussion?) and will flip to Max Brosmer, an undrafted rookie, for his first NFL begin. Mike Macdonald scheming in opposition to a rookie QB making his first profession begin on the highway is not going to finish properly for the Vikings.
Los Angeles Chargers over Las Vegas Raiders
Contemporary off a bye, the Chargers needs to be refueled and revitalized for the stretch run. Sure, they’ve suffered quite a few accidents on their offensive line however I am trusting head coach John Harbaugh to have a stable recreation plan with two weeks to organize. I additionally love their protection in opposition to a struggling Raiders offense that averages simply 4.6 yards per play (thirtieth).
The Chargers’ protection ranks fifth general in whole yards allowed (286.1 per recreation) and fourth in passing yards allowed (172.3 per recreation). They rank fifth in third-down protection (35.4%) and sixth in pink zone protection (52.8% TD charge), indicating elite effectivity throughout situational soccer. It is a top-10 protection working at excessive effectivity, and the Chargers’ teaching workers is wise sufficient to know to double-team Brock Bowers.
The Raiders group is in full disarray getting into this recreation, having fired offensive coordinator Chip Kelly on Nov. 23. This resolution adopted a disappointing 24-10 loss to the Cleveland Browns, which dropped Vegas’ report to 2-9. Head coach Pete Carroll may very well be let go on the finish of the season. I will likely be shocked if the Chargers do not win this recreation by a minimum of a landing.
Week 13 NFL cash line underdogs parlay
A well-liked possibility is accessible if you happen to’re keen to tackle a bit extra threat for a doubtlessly greater reward. Underdog cash line parlays provide the biggest potential payouts within the NFL betting panorama. Combining three underdogs with odds like +200, +150, and +300 might end in payouts exceeding 20-to-1 or greater. One of the best half is that, because of the excessive payouts, underdog parlays can nonetheless be worthwhile even when successful solely a small share of bets. For instance, hitting simply considered one of a number of giant underdog parlays might offset a number of losses and generate general revenue. NFL underdogs have traditionally outperformed expectations in particular conditions, with residence underdogs of +2 to +3 successful outright 46-48% of the time.
Cleveland Browns over San Francisco 49ers
I do not assume the 49ers have the higher QB proper now. Brock Purdy nonetheless appears to be like rusty (three interceptions on MNF) and can play his first cold-weather recreation in probably moist circumstances. Shedeur Sanders’ historic first begin — changing into the primary Browns QB since 1999 to win his inaugural recreation — creates psychological momentum favoring one other begin. Sanders accomplished 11 of 20 passes for 209 yards, with a landing and an interception. Extra importantly, he demonstrated elite effectivity on explosive performs, with a 19% explosive cross charge, second solely to Dillon Gabriel’s Week 7 efficiency this season. In opposition to a 49ers protection inclined on third downs, Sanders’ potential to increase performs by scrambling and discover huge performs turns into more and more worthwhile. Cleveland’s offense seemed extra energized than at any level this season.
The 49ers will likely be enjoying at 10 a.m. (physique clock) on a brief week. The climate forecast appears to be like moist and chilly, which the house crew is extra accustomed to enjoying in. Cleveland’s protection ranks among the many league’s most fearsome pass-rushing items. Myles Garrett leads the NFL in quarterback pressures, and the Browns’ secondary options elite cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Martin Emerson Jr. The Browns rank third in sack share (10.31%) and third general in defensive stress, creating issues for any quarterback. The 49ers haven’t had their bye week but, which implies they are going to play 13 consecutive weeks. I actually just like the Browns on the cash line on this spot.
Tennessee Titans over Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee has lined the unfold in three consecutive video games regardless of shedding all three contests. This development of protecting reveals a Titans crew that has develop into aggressive in close-game conditions. Dwelling environments traditionally amplify this tendency. Once you see a crew protecting spreads in three consecutive video games, it is a signal victory is on the horizon. The Titans have probability to win outright in opposition to a Jacksonville crew that owns a +1.5 level differential together with a -0.2 web yards per play. The Titans look far more competent since Brian Callahan’s termination, which has coincided with Cam Ward’s enchancment with every recreation.
Trevor Lawrence has confirmed to be an inconsistent quarterback who struggles with ball safety. In his most up-to-date outing in opposition to Arizona, he threw for 256 yards with three touchdowns but additionally had three interceptions — a harmful ratio for an offense anticipated to dominate a bottom-tier protection. His season-long EPA per play of -0.04 ranks him among the many least environment friendly certified passers within the league. Extra regarding for Jags followers, Lawrence has exhibited turnover-prone tendencies all through the season, creating alternatives for defensive exploitation that Tennessee can capitalize on.
The Titans misplaced each video games in opposition to Jacksonville in 2024 by deficits of 4 and 7 factors, regardless of having a considerably weaker QB room. I’ll gladly again the house divisional canine at +250 on the cash line on this spot.
New York Giants over New England Patriots
The stage is about for one of many greatest upsets in MNF historical past. Whereas the Patriots enter Week 13 with an NFL-best 10-2 report and driving a nine-game successful streak, the 2-10 Giants possess an ideal storm of benefits that might shock the soccer world at Gillette Stadium.
Essentially the most intriguing issue favoring a Giants upset is the catastrophic harm scenario going through New England’s offensive line. The Patriots misplaced each beginning left deal with Will Campbell and left guard Jared Wilson of their Week 12 victory over Cincinnati, leaving the whole left facet of their safety scheme in shambles. This marks essentially the most vital disruption to New England’s offensive line all season, as their beginning 5 had performed collectively in 11 of 12 video games. Most NFL video games are gained within the trenches, and the Giants have a slight edge now. Jaxson Dart is anticipated to return and his mobility can exploit this Patriots’ protection.
New England’s nine-game successful streak appears to be like spectacular at first look, however there’s extra to the story than meets the attention. Digging somewhat deeper, you will discover some cracks within the armor. Of the ten wins, six have been by only a single possession. Three of these have come within the final 4 video games. The Patriots just lately eked out a 26-20 win in opposition to Cincinnati, the place they discovered themselves down 10-0 early on and solely pulled by due to a defensive landing. We all know the Giants have an extended historical past of upsetting the Patriots. I anticipate this cash line to drop because the week progresses, so guess it ASAP.
